Preview: UFC on Fox 29 ‘Poirier vs. Gaethje’

Middleweights

Marvin Vettori (12-3-1) vs. Israel Adesanya (12-0)

ODDS: Adesanya (-275), (+235)

ANALYSIS: Adesanya burst onto the UFC scene with a second-round knockout of Rob Wilkinson just two months ago. Already the owner of a full highlight reel of thrilling knockouts from MMA and his extensive kickboxing career, “The Last Stylebender” immediately became a person of interest at 185 pounds. The New Zealand-based Nigerian can switch stances and deliver nasty, lightning-quick kicks to all levels. He also uses his long frame, sliding away from lunging offense while sticking out a stiff jab. He can move forward to meet opponents with step-in or jump knees to the body. His head movement and feints are outstanding, keeping adversaries flustered, flummoxed and worried about the prospect of his devastating offense. Adesanya does not throw a ton of volume unless he has his man cornered on the cage, but so far, he has not needed to.

As you would imagine coming from a kickboxing background, wrestling is Adesanya’s relative weakness. He has shown off impressive hip tosses of his own to counter would-be takedowns on the Australian regional scene, but he was not facing top-flight wrestlers there. Against Wilkinson, a bottom-tier UFC fighter known for grinding-but-pedestrian wrestling, Adesanya was taken down multiple times and stuck on the cage for extended periods. His athleticism has thus far enabled him to scramble or explode out of precarious positions or back to his feet. However, the City Kickboxing rep displayed impressive cardio, barely breathing hard after fending off Wilkinson’s takedowns and burying him under an avalanche of punches.

That may be the weapon that puts him over the top against Vettori. “The Italian Dream” will test Adesanya in the wrestling and grappling departments, and his strength, size and Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt may prove too much for the hyped prospect. Unlike Adesanya, who weighed in against Wilkinson at 183 pounds and is quite lean, Vettori is a strapped middleweight. The southpaw likes to pressure when he is fresh, throwing long, straight punches and round kicks to the legs, body and head. When things get hairy, he tends to get wild or resort to ill-advised spinning attacks. However, in extended kickboxing battles, the Stabile Fight Team and Jackson-Wink MMA product does not stay fresh for long. Against Omari Akhmedov, another fighter known for awful cardio, he wound up standing right in front of the power-punching Russian. While he showed off his chin, his performance was a step back. He caught a second wind in the final round to bludgeon a gassed Akhmedov and steal a draw, but it did not need to go down that way.

If the Italian plays around on the feet too long, he will get tired and gradually carved up by Adesanya’s superior striking and cardio. With that said, I do not expect it to play out that way. Vettori held his own in the wrestling and grappling departments with Antonio Carlos Jr., so I think he can handle the kickboxer. He taps out Adesanya in the first half of the fight.

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