Preview: UFC on Fox 21 ‘Maia vs. Condit’

Women’s Strawweights

Paige VanZant (6-2) vs. Bec Rawlings (7-4)

THE MATCHUP: VanZant has become a star more for her looks than her talent, but the talent is certainly there. One of the most athletic fighters in the UFC’s strawweight division, VanZant is an aggressive, physical fighter who enjoys pressing her opponents against the fence and working them over with knees and elbows. Though not a knockout artist, VanZant has the ability to finish her opponents late, when the attritive buildup of her strikes and takedowns has them worn down and waiting to be stopped.

Rawlings is probably one of the most durable women VanZant will have ever fought, and she is aggressive in her own right. That aggression is more of a weakness for Rawlings than it is for VanZant, however. She seems incapable of letting an opportunity go without attacking full-force. As a result, she tends to put herself into bad positions and expend too much energy in the early rounds.

That could spell doom against VanZant, who is not only a workhorse but a warhorse, as well. VanZant absorbed everything Rose Namajunas could throw at her, taking 57 strikes and escaping three airtight submission attempts before finally succumbing to a rear-naked choke in the fifth round. The fight was not competitive, but Namajunas is a class above both VanZant and Rawlings, and the grit VanZant showed in a loss is arguably more impressive than any of Rawlings’ seven wins.

THE ODDS: VanZant (-195), Rawlings (+165)

THE PICK: Rawlings is durable, but she is capable of being exhausted, as well. She absorbed 92 strikes in her fight Seo Hee Ham and only escaped with a questionable win thanks to her size, as she pinned the career atomweight to the fence. Even in the process, she could not stop Ham from landing 25 blows in the final frame. That was only the second decision win of Rawlings’ career. VanZant will not fade, and she will not be muscled around like Ham. She will also come after Rawlings from the opening bell, increasing her chances of tiring the Alliance MMA product down the stretch. Once that happens, this is VanZant’s fight to lose. The pick is VanZant by third-round submission.

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