Flyweights
#6 FLW | Matheus Nicolau (18-2-1, 6-1 UFC) vs. #7 FLW | Matt Schnell (16-6, 6-4 UFC)It is nice to see Schnell finally get some shine. Schnell was already a seasoned vet by the time he got to the UFC via “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2016, and “Danger” seemingly had all the tools to immediately succeed, showing knockout power to go along with an impressively slick grappling game. However, Schnell quickly found himself undone by a surprising lack of durability, an issue compounded by his proclivity for turning his fights into all-out wars. Fortunately for Schnell, he found a way to successfully adjust, pivoting towards a more patient style that took advantage of his long frame and allowed him to keep his opponents at bay; and it immediately paid dividends, as Schnell put together four straight wins to go from the UFC’s cut line to the fringes of the title picture. Schnell has been a bit less consistent since that four-fight winning streak, trying to stay patient at times but also sometimes reverting back to his brawling ways and getting finished as a result—at least up until his high-profile win over Su Mudaerji in July. The fight was a clear highlight of one of the UFC’s rare cards on ABC. What had been an enjoyable fight looked to be turning the corner towards a clear Mudaerji win, only for Schnell to stage an impressively violent comeback and score the second-round submission. Things hit just right for Schnell to be the toast of the sport for a brief period, and this prominent spot is a nice move to see if the Louisianian can keep up that momentum, even if Nicolau may not be the right matchup to make that happen. Brazil’s Nicolau has been a frustratingly consistent talent since making his UFC debut in 2015 with a style that runs against the typical flyweight game. While a lot of the division is known for non-stop action and scrambling on the mat, Nicolau is a neutralizing fighter who is at his best while slowing the pace. It is a testament to Nicolau’s skill and accuracy that his approach works as well as it does. It seems like Nicolau should be outpaced as a fighter who also does not seem particularly quick, but he is sharp with his counters and has proven to be one of the harder fighters in the division to take down. After a few years out of the UFC as part of the promotion’s teardown of the flyweight division, Nicolau has proven tough to crack since his 2021 return, as Manel Kape, Tim Elliott and David Dvorak each failed to get much done against him. Schnell could certainly drag something exciting out of Nicolau with his combination of size and aggression, but that does seem like a losing battle. Nicolau may not be at his best in a brawl, but he is a sharp-enough puncher that he should land something huge if Schnell opens himself up defensively. There is also a decent shot that Schnell is just the latest opponent to be disincentivized into inactivity by Nicolau, but either way, this looks like the Brazilian’s fight to lose. The pick is Nicolau via decision.
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Thompson vs. Holland
Dos Anjos vs. Barberena
Nicolau vs. Schnell
Pavlovich vs. Tuivasa
Hermansson vs. Dolidze
Daukaus vs. Anders
The Prelims