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Welterweights
Kevin Holland (22-7, 9-4 UFC) vs. Tim Means (32-12-1, 14-9 UFC)ODDS: Holland (-275), Means (+220)
Holland was an unexpected breakout star of the UFC’s pandemic era. “Trailblazer” had already gained some fans through his creative approach—he did start his UFC career by attempting a flying armlock on Thiago Santos, after all—but once he started fighting in the UFC Apex, Holland began to truly shine. The chaotic nature of the matchmaking at the time allowed Holland to keep banking fights, and his tendency to provide his own commentary allowed him to stand out from the pack. Of course, little of that would have mattered if 2020 was not Holland’s best year to date. By the end of it, he had racked up five straight wins, marking himself as a potential contender with a knockout win of Ronaldo Souza. While 2021 could have been a breakout campaign for Holland to establish himself as an elite middleweight, things quickly went south. Derek Brunson put on a wrestling clinic that neutralized Holland’s dynamic style in his first main event. Holland then stepped in on late notice for another headliner three weeks later, getting stifled once again by Marvin Vettori. Holland’s last fight of the year, opposite Kyle Daukaus, ended quickly in a no contest, so he announced a surprising cut to welterweight after a winless 2021. So far so good at 170 pounds for Holland, who is absolutely gigantic in his new weight class. March saw him fight Alex Oliveira essentially even for a round until Holland closed the show with a knockout mere moments into Round 2. Now it is time for another test against a recognizable name, this time against Means.
Now 38 years old, Means is slowing down, but his recent run has thankfully shown that he is not done as a fighter just yet. Means had a brief run as a gigantic lightweight before sliding out of the promotion, but he returned to the UFC in 2014 as a much more effective welterweight, making a name for himself as a premier purveyor of violence. “The Dirty Bird” can be technically minded at times, but his greatest moments have come via making a fight absolutely grimy, with Means’ clinch game and elbows serving as clear highlights of what he has been able to bring to the table. For someone who has been well-regarded for years, it is a bit frustrating that Means never got fully over the hump to any sort of contender status. There were a few windows of opportunity, but they were quickly closed by the wrong loss at the wrong time, including some questionable decisions. Some recent losses to Niko Price and Daniel Rodriguez raised some worry that Means was nearing a rough end to his career. Long known for his durability and with an approach often reliant on attrition, it was disheartening to see Means suddenly get dispatched with one or two hard punches. However, Means has recovered well with three straight victories during the pandemic era. He might actually get fazed by the occasional hard shot and needs to rely on some control at times, but Means is still an effective fighter at this point in his career. With that said, this does seem like a rotten matchup for the veteran. Means is capable of outwrestling Holland at moments but does not seem to have the chops to control the Texan’s massive frame for long stretches of time. The clinch also does not figure to be a safety valve for Means, as Holland is quite capable there himself. Holland’s combination of reach and speed does figure to find him a few massive punches that can quickly change the momentum of this fight. It is a worthy next test for Holland in this weight class, but it is one he should win. The pick is Holland via second-round knockout.
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