Lightweights
Jeremy Stephens (28-18, 1 N/C) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (18-1, 1 N/C)Odds: Gamrot (-220), Stephens (+180)
What to make of Gamrot? Poland's "Gamer" was considered a big fish for the UFC to reel in for his promotional debut this past October; Gamrot put together a strong résumé and an undefeated record en route to becoming KSW's champion at both featherweight and lightweight. But that UFC debut saw Gamrot's hype train get derailed almost immediately. It wasn't a poor performance for Gamrot against fellow newcomer and top prospect Guram Kutateladze, but it showed the negatives of the five-round style that Gamrot had built for himself as a regional champion; his wrestling didn't lead much of anywhere, and his relatively cautious approach never quite built to anything, resulting in a close bout that went to Kutateladze on the scorecards. On the plus side, Gamrot was more effective in his sophomore effort against Scott Holtzman this past April, though Gamrot's wrestling success and ability to score a knockout may just say more about where Holtzman is at this point in his career. At any rate, Gamrot gets a huge opportunity here to regain his momentum against Stephens. If it's still hard to know where Gamrot is in relation to the rest of the UFC roster, Stephens is the complete opposite, as "Lil' Heathen" is just about the most known entity in the promotion after 33 trips to the Octagon.
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After his career as an action lightweight plateaued around 2012, Stephens cut to 145 pounds and surged towards contender status with his newfound physical advantages. But despite finding a higher ceiling at featherweight, Stephens never really made the jump from a Top 10 fighter to the 145-pound elite; while he's added some nuance and new tricks over the years, he's still a fairly straight-ahead scrapper who's found trouble against opponents willing to outmaneuver him or mix things up. This marks Stephens's move back up to the lightweight division after over eight years away, and it'll be interesting to see how that recalibrates things here, particularly in terms of Gamrot's wrestling; while Gamrot's wrestling hasn't gotten him much in terms of control in his two UFC bouts thus far, he could be stronger than Stephens is banking on with this move up in weight. And in general, Stephens' takedown defense seems to come and go depending on how much he's prepared for his opponent, and it's unclear how he perceives Gamrot going into this bout. But while it wouldn't be a shock if Gamrot took this, the Pole's approach is fairly straight-ahead and not the type of thing that tends to take Stephens too off guard -- and if neither man is doing much to separate themselves, Stephens figures to be the more comfortable fighter throwing the harder shots. The pick is Stephens via decision.
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