Welterweights
Charlie Radtke (9-4, 2-1 UFC) vs. Matthew Semelsberger (11-7, 5-5 UFC)This should be an entertaining scrap between two welterweights looking to get back in the win column. Radtke has overachieved a bit through three UFC bouts, if only because expectations weren’t particularly high for “Chuck Buffalo.” He had a spotty regional career as a lightweight before turning things around as a welterweight, but his best skill seemed to be outwrestling opponents who looked to wrestle him first. A grinding win over Mike Mathetha in his UFC debut was the type of affair where neither man looked great, so a February knockout of Gilbert Urbina was at least a nice proof of concept that Radtke could march down and create his own success against solid opposition. Unfortunately for Radtke, he then got paired with Carlos Prates and taken apart in fairly one-sided fashion, but he has a decent opportunity at bouncing back here against Semelsberger.
A raw prospect when he was signed as part of the UFC’s scramble to pick up talent back in 2020, Semelsberger came to the promotion with an inconsistent game that was a bit of a grab bag of several different ideas. That has held true to an extent in the UFC, though Semelsberger’s athleticism has popped more than expected in some advantageous matchups. Faced with slow-footed opposition like Jason Witt and Martin Sano, “Semi the Jedi” has been able to score a quick knockout without much issue. A 2022 win over Jake Matthews served as a high-water mark that suggested Semelsberger might be turning a corner, but over time, it has looked more like an advantageous matchup. Matthews’ willingness to stay at range allowed Semelsberger to plug away in a slow-paced fight for three rounds. Semelsberger has since struggled against three opponents more willing to keep moving forward and make him work. Radtke lays right on the line as far as whether or not he’s another advantageous matchup for Semelsberger. His willingness to plod forward could just leave him open for some brutal offense from Semelsberger. However, he’s also dogged enough that if he’s able to find some early success, he could drag Semelsberger into a tough fight where the Marylander could make some bad decisions. Radtke might not be the most durable fighter, but he should at least survive better than Witt or Sano did, which is enough to get the nod. The pick is Radtke via decision.
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