Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Silva vs. Bisping’

Welterweights

Tom Breese (9-0) vs Keita Nakamura (31-6-2)

THE MATCHUP: Breese is a prospect in need of some experience, and Nakamura is a veteran with 13 years of experience to share.

Nakamura and Breese are out-fighters by nature, though Breese’s four-inch height advantage might make him the more natural fit for that style. Breese is a southpaw, and his striking style is classic lefty. His best weapon is his cross, which he throws as a back-stepping counter and as an aggressive pot-shot. Breese also has some pop in his round kicks and a punishing front kick that plays nicely off of the opponent’s attempts to avoid his left hand.

Nakamura switches stances often. Interestingly, he is better with his lead hand from either stance. Nakamura throws a sharp jab from either position and uses the threat of this punch to sneak quick hooks around the opponent’s guard. Though he was outclassed once his opponent got into a striking rhythm, Nakamura managed to knock down Jingliang Li with one of these hooks in the first 15 seconds of their fight. Nakamura gets great weight transfer on this shot, and his right hook in particular is a weapon to watch out for.

Breese holds all the advantages as far as striking defense goes. Not only has he been improving his defensive footwork -- he used Conor McGregor’s trademark back-step cross counter to great effect against Cathal Pendred -- but his head movement has been improving, as well. As he grows more comfortable in the pocket, Breese has begun using his slips to initiate quick combinations of short punches before separating. Nakamura, however, is frightfully upright, and his head almost never strays from his own centerline.

Of course, with 17 submissions to his credit, Nakamura prefers to fight on the ground. Nakamura is a deft scrambler, and he finds a way to the back nearly every time a fight of his hits the canvas. All but three of his submissions have come via rear-naked choke. Unfortunately for the Japanese fighter, Breese has excellent takedown defense. Worse, Nakamura has an awful habit of shooting from long distance without a setup, though the sit-out with which he set up his finish of Li should serve as a warning to any headstrong opponent. Nakamura is tough, and he never stops looking for a way to end the fight.

THE ODDS: Breese (-900), Nakamura (+600)

THE PICK: It would be unfair to count out Nakamura here, but nothing in this style matchup seems to favor him. Breese looks like the harder hitter, and he has significant height and reach advantages. Breese is difficult to take down, is punishing in the clinch and is absolutely massive for this division. Unless Nakamura can find another miraculous submission like he did last time out, Breese seems likely to beat him up. The pick is Breese by unanimous decision.

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