Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rodriguez vs. Caceres’

Middleweights

Thales Leites (25-6) vs. Chris Camozzi (24-10)

THE MATCHUP: As a hardcore fan of the oddball middleweight division, there is nothing more pleasing to me than the late-career resurgences of both Leites and Camozzi, although whether latter’s can be called a comeback is uncertain. Camozzi has been plying his special brand of rangy kickboxing for over 10 years at this point, but he has never flagged in his role as middleweight journeyman supreme. He has rarely been dominated and never been knocked out; and though the preponderance of split decisions on his record speaks to a lack of dynamic finishing ability, it is also a strong argument for the inherent toughness of his style. Camozzi has sharpened his tools in recent years and remains a difficult man to decisively beat.

Leites was soundly beaten in his last fight, a flat effort against Gegard Mousasi, but his own improvements have been more dramatic. Still nobody’s idea of a flawless striker, Leites has nonetheless learned the value of aggression and gained enough confidence in his hands to unleash terrifying combinations in mid-range. On the ground, Leites is a top-notch submission artist, but he has yet to show the wrestling skills necessary to press that advantage on a regular basis.

The Brazilian’s powerful but limited striking will be pitted against the relatively powerless but far more nuanced kickboxing of Camozzi. The southpaw Camozzi has an educated right jab, a tricky lead uppercut and a stinging and very straight left hand, all of which are complimented by the second most active kicking game in the middleweight division. While Leites is struggling to take down Camozzi, who boasts a 63 percent rate of takedown defense, he will find himself in Camozzi’s other wheelhouse: the clinch. Camozzi loves to drag down the covering hands of his opponents and slice through the gaps with elbows.

THE ODDS: Leites (-185), Camozzi (+160)

THE PICK: Leites’ most available advantages in this matchup are his power and the fact that he is just reckless enough with his offense to take advantage of the sometimes-inconsistent defense Camozzi wields. Camozzi, however, has never been knocked out, and he has a southpaw version of the game that Gegard Mousasi used to utterly nullify Leites’ striking. Leites will have his moments -- Camozzi rarely dominates a fight outright the way Mousasi can -- but he will find himself time and again on the end of one of the division’s best jabs. Camozzi takes this one via unanimous decision.

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