Leonardo Santos is unbeaten over his last eight appearances. | Photo: Gleidson Venga/Sherdog.com
LIGHTWEIGHTS
Leonardo Santos (13-3-1, 2-0-1 UFC) vs. Tony Martin (9-2, 1-2 UFC)
Santos, a Nova Uniao product, is finally starting to develop something that bears a vague resemblance to a well-rounded game. The core of his approach remains his venomous grappling arsenal, which focuses on top control, hard ground strikes, an array of ultra-slick passes and finishing with his trademark arm-triangle. The problem is getting the fight to the mat, as Santos is not a strong wrestler and relies heavily on trips from the clinch and absolutely atrocious shot takedowns usually executed from too far away. He is not as bad a striker as he was earlier in his career, with an increasingly crisp jab and cross along with the occasional low kick, but he is hittable, plodding and lacks pop.
Martin is a native of MMA. With that in mind, his game shows both the benefits and drawbacks of a lack of background in other combat sports. He phase-shifts nicely from striking to wrestling and can do a bit of everything, but he lacks much in the way of depth in any of his skill sets. To give an example, Martin throws crisp combinations and moves fairly well at range, but he simply does not have the experience to adjust to opponents who can change up things mid-fight. A solid wrestler, Martin does his best work from top position, with slick submissions and a heavy base. He is an excellent athlete and is huge for the division, but cardio has been a consistent problem and he has trouble fighting past the beginning of the second round.
THE PICK: Neither fighter is exactly a world-beater, though Martin has more upside and is improving more noticeably from fight to fight. It would not be terribly surprising if the American made a huge leap and lived up to some of his potential here, but I think the more likely scenario involves Santos doing enough at range, working control and takedowns from the clinch and finishing with a choke. The pick is Santos by submission in the second round.
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