Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Lineker vs. Dodson’

Flyweights

Louis Smolka (11-1) vs. Brandon Moreno (11-3)

THE MATCHUP: “Scrappy” is probably the best word to describe Moreno. The Mexican prospect was ousted in the first boutt of the first round on Season 24 of “The Ultimate Fighter,” but he gave the number one seed a tough fight despite being ranked dead last himself. Moreno tends to play fast and loose with all aspects of his game. If he sees a takedown, he takes it, whether his neck is wrapped up or not. If he sees a low guard, he throws combinations and slings punches to the body the moment that guard comes back up. Moreno has and will get himself into trouble, and at just 22 years old and with only 14 fights under his belt, he could use a bit of seasoning. Still, Moreno is exactly the kind of fighter that cannot be counted out.

Smolka seemed like a similar fighter when he began his UFC career, but over time, “Da Last Samurai” has proven himself to be a solid, reliable fighter. The Hawaiian seemed determined to kickbox with his first three UFC opponents, but he has since settled into an aggressive yet methodical grappling style. Smolka usually takes a few minutes to get comfortable, but once he has his opponent felt out, he floats effortlessly in top position, either posturing up to land strikes or sinking in chokes as his opponent scrambles underneath him.

This submission grappling attack is facilitated by a rapidly improving wrestling game. Rather than using his long jab to keep the opponent at bay, Smolka now closes the distance behind it. Smolka can finish a shot, but his best takedowns occur in the clinch, where his height gives him excellent leverage with his underhooks and allows him to toss around his diminutive opponents.

THE ODDS: Smolka (-255), Moreno (+210)

THE PICK: Moreno’s scrappy, scramble-centric style makes him a dangerous opponent for Smolka, who has a tendency to start slow. The likelihood of Moreno finishing Smolka in the first few minutes, however, is very small. Smolka has never been finished, and eight of Moreno’s 11 wins have come via submission -- Smolka’s area of expertise. We also have to consider that Smolka will enter this fight with a full camp, while Moreno is stepping in to replace Sergio Pettis on just about a week’s notice. This should be a bit of a showcase for “Da Last Samurai.” The pick is Smolka by second-round submission.

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