Welterweights
Tarec Saffiedine (16-4) vs Rick Story (18-8)
THE MATCHUP: A fantastic welterweight matchup between two of the welterweight division’s most promising fighters -- both of whom have been maligned by frequent injuries and long layoffs over the past three years. Story has not stepped foot into the Octagon since his decisive win over Gunnar Nelson in October of 2014, while Saffiedine’s victory over Jake Ellenberger in January was his only fight in the last 14 months.
Saffiedine is the more technical of the two at range, though Story’s sound boxing rarely receives its due credit. His kickboxing is based primarily on two fundamental weapons, the jab and the low kick. Saffiedine is comfortable employing these tactics from either the southpaw or the orthodox stance. His low kicks are understandably feared: Tarec is one of the few genuine low kick specialists in MMA. He will kick softly and probe out his opponent’s defenses before flashing the jab and securing his path to the thigh or calf. None of Saffiedine’s strikes are particularly crippling in their own right, but his accuracy and consistency allow him to wear adversaries down.
Wrestling and grappling will almost certainly play a major role in this fight. Story uses his punches to enter into takedowns. His leg attacks are solid, but the clinch is where he really excels, and the clinch is where he goes whenever an initial takedown fails. Story is an excellent pummeler: he is very difficult to shake off in the clinch because he constantly battles to have at least one underhook. He is also very strong from the rear-waist cinch, where he plugs away with knees and foot stomps while looking to break his opponent down.
Saffiedine is decidedly a counter wrestler. His game is geared toward defending takedowns and returning to his feet. Though he was once too willing to fight off of his back, recent fights have seen Saffiedine keep active hips while fighting for underhooks and looking to return to his feet.
THE ODDS: Saffiedine (-120), Story (+100)
THE PICK: With Story’s pace and relentless style, Saffiedine must positively answer two questions in order to win this fight. One: can he hurt Story badly enough on the way in to keep him at bay or end the fight? Saffiedine has not KO’d an opponent since May of 2010, so the answer is most likely no. Which brings us to two: can Saffiedine remain technically perfect enough with his footwork and strike selection to prevent Story from racking up points and stifling him against the fence? Saffiedine is among the most technical strikers in MMA today, but he cannot match Story for volume--and it bears remembering that Story is quite the sound boxer in his own right. Neither as reckless as Hyun Gyu Lim nor as timid as Ellenberger, Story would seem to have the answer to Saffiedine’s patient style. The pick is Story by unanimous decision.
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