Preview: UFC Fight Night 226 ‘Gane vs. Spivak’

Lightweights

Benoit St. Denis (11-1, 3-1 UFC) vs. Thiago Moises (17-6, 6-4 UFC)

ODDS: St. Denis (-155), Moises (+130)

If he lives up to his last few performances, there is a chance that St. Denis can provide the highlight of this card. St. Denis was thrown to the wolves for a late-notice UFC debut at welterweight against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, but France’s “God of War” cut down to lightweight afterwards and picked up right where he left off on the regional scene, running through opponents with unchecked aggression and a consistently effective grappling game. St. Denis’ dominant win over Gabriel Miranda was one of the best moments of the UFC’s debut in Paris, and after another one-sided victory—this time over an extremely well-regarded prospect in Ismael Bonfim—he has earned a chance for his biggest win yet against Moises. Somehow still just 28 years old, Moises can match St. Denis skill for skill, but it is always interesting to see how the Brazilian approaches each fight. A standout grappler, Moises found some success with a counter-heavy style up until the point that he met future champ Islam Makhachev. There was no shame in losing that bout, but a subsequent loss that saw Joel Alvarez take the initiative and swarm Moises for a quick finish became a much larger cause for concern. To his credit, Moises has since adjusted to focus a bit more on getting to his wrestling and focusing on his grappling skill, but it is unclear how well that will work here. Each man is at his best leaning on his grappling, so there is a sense that they may neutralize one another. The other way things could cut is one man establishing himself as the clearly better grappler and blowing this fight wide open, but either way, this is a coinflip, so it seems worth giving the nod to St. Denis on the basis of his more consistent aggression. The pick is St. Denis via decision.

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Gane vs. Spivak
Fiorot vs. Namajunas
St. Denis vs. Moises
Oezdemir vs. Guskov
Gomis vs. Ghemmouri
The Prelims