Featherweights
Cub Swanson (25-10) vs. Shane Burgos (11-1)ODDS: Burgos (-175), Swanson (+155)
Swanson once again needs to resurrect his career, but luckily for him, he has a ton of experience doing so. Whether it was suffering a submission loss to late-career Jens Pulver and going from top World Extreme Cagefighting contender to getting knocked out in eight seconds by Jose Aldo or one-sided losses to Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway seemingly closing the door on him as a top featherweight, Swanson has been able to get off the schneid, regain his momentum and become a contender once again. This time around, he finds himself on a three-fight losing streak; Edgar, Brian Ortega and Renato Carneiro are all among the top featherweights in the world -- the main solace in a run that has seen Swanson look frightened into overcautiousness against Edgar and simply overmatched by the hand speed of Moicano. At 35 and nearly 15 years into his career, there is a chance that this is the point where a division full of younger fighters with more complex games passes Swanson by, but again, we have been here before. Swanson got beaten to many punches by Holloway, only to start dominating once again when his opposition came down a level. This fight is the litmus test this time: Either Swanson still has it and gets by Burgos, or the time has come to face some hard truths.
It speaks to the depth of the UFC’s featherweight division that Burgos has flown under the radar as a talented prospect, but as it turns out, that may be for the best as the New Yorker tries to work out the kinks in his approach. Burgos’ debut win over Tiago dos Santos e Silva was one of the few highlights of the promotion’s card out of Albany, New York, and “Hurricane Shane” spent 2017 showing off an aggressive striking game that kept opponents on their heels. Burgos has a solid bag of tricks, but his 2018 fight against Calvin Kattar exposed a lot of the holes in his game. Once Kattar got a feel for exactly what the Team Tiger Schulmann export was throwing and started to time him, Burgos was unable to do much to adjust as his counterpart got rolling downhill before scoring a finish. Burgos looked a bit more patient and thoughtful in his last fight against Kurt Holobaugh, but it is hard to say that it has paid any dividends just yet. Burgos got knocked down early and ended the fight with a miracle armbar before ever getting out of the gate. So as much as this is a prove-it fight for Swanson, this is also a huge opportunity for Burgos to show off some evolution and regain a lot of his lost momentum.
This is a crucial fight for both men. Obviously, a win for Swanson is necessary for him to stay near the top of the featherweight division, but Burgos’ career is just as much of a ticking time bomb thanks to a case of scoliosis. At any rate, this should be Swanson’s fight to lose, as he will mostly get things on his terms. Against Ortega, Edgar and Carneiro, the threat of the takedown or the submission loomed to various degrees. There will be none of that here, as Burgos mostly just looks to throw down. Swanson should be able to bank on his experience; he can be rote, but Burgos suffers just as much from the same problems. A Burgos win would mean huge things for the trajectories of both men, but the pick is for Swanson to hold serve with a second-round knockout.
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