Lightweights
#2 LW | Justin Gaethje (25-4, 8-4 UFC) vs. #14 P4P | Max Holloway (25-7, 21-7 UFC)On a card filled with fights with high stakes, it is a bit refreshing to have one that is matched purely for some high-level cross-divisional violence. Ahead of his long-awaited UFC debut in 2017, Gaethje was guaranteed to be a fan favorite, but it was unclear how far he could carry his violence-heavy style towards championship-level success. Gaethje’s approach was built entirely around constant pressure, and while some defense existed, it was solely in service of getting him back to throwing offense as quickly as possible. Gaethje’s UFC debut against Michael Johnson was a perfect introduction to the greater masses, as he nearly got knocked out before storming back for a finish. However, losses to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier suggested that Gaethje would peak as a beloved action fighter rather than a championship contender. Both fighters consistently outmaneuvered Gaethje’s straightforward pressure and picked him apart, eventually tiring him out and scoring a late stoppage. From there, Gaethje slowly transitioned to a more patient style that did not become particularly apparent until a dominant 2020 victory over Tony Ferguson. Gaethje is still as willing as ever to engage in an absolute war, but he is now more likely to cede the initiative and react to his opponent’s offense rather than leave himself open defensively by leading the dance. That has been a mixed bag, as it may have cost him in title shots against Khabib Nurmagomedov and particularly Charles Oliveira, but those adjustments led to a surprisingly successful 2023 run. Gaethje outlasted Rafael Fiziev before avenging his 2018 loss to Poirier with a second-round knockout. That win over Poirier awarded Gaethje the honorary “BMF” title and also figured to put Gaethje in the catbird seat to fight Islam Makhachev for the lightweight crown in his next fight. Instead, Gaethje’s health, Makhachev’s health and the UFC’s schedule never fully aligned. As a result, Gaethje is now set for a five-round war against a former featherweight champion in Holloway.
This fight also comes at an odd time for Holloway. It seemed like the right fight for “Blessed” when it was announced, as he was frozen out of the title picture against Alexander Volkanovski. However, Ilia Topuria defeating Volkanovski in February does make things complicated for Holloway at 145 pounds. At any rate, this is still a fun bit of business that sees Holloway continue to test himself and add to his legacy. That legacy already seems fairly secure, as Holloway has clearly been a fighter who has helped move the sport forward. A fresh-faced 20-year-old when he signed with the UFC in 2012, Holloway had a rocky start to his career as a prospect out of his depth before reeling off 13 straight wins. It was during that run that Holloway established himself as the cutting edge and future of the sport, developing a particularly volume-heavy striking style that consistently overwhelmed opponents; and with Holloway willing to keep an active schedule, the UFC fanbase got constant reminders of his greatness. When Holloway unseated Jose Aldo for the featherweight championship in 2017, it felt like a true changing of the guard. One of the stoutest defensive fighters in mixed martial arts history, Aldo eventually got overwhelmed by Holloway’s pace and volume, setting a new standard for offense that has essentially forced the entire sport to keep up in the ensuing years. For someone who has spent so long as an elite fighter, Holloway’s actual featherweight reign was fairly short, lasting two and a half years until he ran into Volkanovski—a fellow all-time great that the Hawaiian just could not get past. Volkanovski eventually laid on an extended beating to end the rivalry in a trilogy fight back in 2022. Surrounding the Volkanovski fights, Holloway has taken on all comers at featherweight and turned them back handily. A 2021 win over Calvin Kattar saw him land 447 strikes in a performance that got so dominant it felt disrespectful, and he even did a better job of picking his spots in wins over Arnold Allen and Chan Sung Jung in 2023. The end result is a fighter who seems to be in a similar spot as Gaethje in terms of evolution. Holloway will still throw down with anyone; he is just now a bit smarter in choosing to do so. Still, this fight should be madness for however long it lasts, which seems likely to be all 25 minutes. Holloway has a case as the most durable fighter in the history of the sport, and while Gaethje can be stunned, the Hawaiian is much more the type of fighter who scores finishes through wars of attrition. Holloway’s only other trip up to lightweight in the UFC seems instructive, as he took on Poirier when the 155-pound belt was vacant. Holloway was an absolute gamer, as always, but Poirier clearly hit him with much more impact and affirmed that “Blessed” is at his best at 145 pounds. That gives Gaethje the benefit of the doubt, particularly since he seems to be as accurate in his power as ever. However, if this turns into a high-paced battle, there is all the opportunity for Holloway to tire Gaethje out and pour things on in the championship rounds if he can eat all the early offense. The bet is that both men survive and Gaethje lands the bigger blows. The pick is Gaethje via decision.
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Zhang vs. Yan
Gaethje vs. Holloway
Tsarukyan vs. Oliveira
Nickal vs. Brundage
The Prelims