Preview: UFC 299 Prelims

Lightweights

#6 LW | Mateusz Gamrot (23-2, 6-2 UFC) vs. #11 LW | Rafael dos Anjos (32-15, 21-13 UFC)

ODDS: Gamrot (-470), dos Anjos (+360)

Given the strength of his resume prior to his UFC debut, it is not surprising to see Gamrot find success on the greater stage, though getting there has been an adventure. As a two-division champion in KSW, Poland’s “Gamer” was one of the standouts on the European scene when he signed with the UFC in 2020, and he was expected to immediately hit the ground running as a potential title contender. Instead, Gamrot’s UFC career seemingly got derailed almost immediately. Matched with late replacement and relatively unknown prospect Guram Kutateladze, Gamrot was unable to turn his wrestling-heavy approach into much damage or control, dropping a split decision in a massive upset. Gamrot regained his shine in 2021 with finishes of Scott Holtzman, Jeremy Stephens and Diego Ferreira—the latter two of which showed his skill and relentlessness on the mat—which in turn set him up for a headlining affair against Arman Tsaruyan in June 2022. It was an excellent, high-level fight that lasted five rounds, but it was also a shock to see Gamrot walk away with the unanimous decision, as the judges decided to reward his pressure and control rather than the damage and impact that Tsarukyan seemed to cause. Gamrot hit a wall against Beneil Dariush, but an undefeated 2023 campaign has the Pole right back on the fringes of title contention, even if he seems a bit lucky to be there. A decision win over Jalin Turner was also a nip-tuck affair, and a victory over Rafael Fiziev was competitive until the latter suffered a fight-ending leg injury. Left without an obvious direction in a lightweight division that is mostly booked in terms of contender fights, Gamrot is tasked with welcoming a former champion in dos Anjos back to 155 pounds.

Between his longevity and success, dos Anjos is an underrated all-time great in mixed martial arts history, owing to his quiet professionalism. He made his UFC debut in 2008 and nearly slid out of the promotion with two straight losses, but he steadily improved until a breakout win over Donald Cerrone in 2013 announced him as a potential title contender. By that point, dos Anjos had honed the pressure-heavy striking game that would become his signature over the ensuing decade. However, dos Anjos then ran into Khabib Nurmagomedov in a fight that figured to earn the winner a title shot, but things worked out for the Brazilian within a year. Nurmagomedov suffered one of his many injury layoffs around the time, and with dos Anjos racking up three more wins by the end of 2014, he found himself as the top contender for then-champion Anthony Pettis. The UFC was firmly in the Pettis business at this point, but dos Anjos upset those plans with a grinding win to take the title from “Showtime.” After a one-sided title defense in a rematch against Cerrone, he appeared to be a long-term champion in the UFC’s deepest division. Instead, dos Anjos ended 2016 outside of the lightweight division. He suffered a broken foot ahead of a potentially massive title defense against Conor McGregor, was upset by Eddie Alvarez upon his return and ended the year with a decision loss to Tony Ferguson, prompting a move to welterweight in 2017. Dos Anjos proved to have a rough go of it at welterweight despite some impressive performances even in his losses. For as much as he can drown opponents in pressure, he can be taken completely out of his game against opponents able to pressure him back, and the wrestling-heavy nature of the division at the time meant that dos Anjos was neutralized in a lot of his welterweight fights. From 2020 on, dos Anjos has bounced between the two divisions as a reliably effective fighter. He is too slow at lightweight and too physically overmatched at welterweight to still compete with the divisional elite, but anyone outside of that better be ready to eat a ton of damage in a rough fight. Gamrot’s game is so dependent on control that dos Anjos eking out a win based on a few moments of damage would not be a shock. With that said, pressure-heavy wrestlers are such a historically poisonous matchup for the former lightweight champ that Gamrot gets the benefit of the doubt. It would be a much easier call for the Pole in a five-round fight, given his ability to weaponize his pace even more over 25 minutes, but the pick is still Gamrot via decision.

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