Rinya Nakamura (8-0) vs. Carlos Vera (11-3)
Odds: Nakamura (-1100), Vera (+700)
The UFC has finally started to pursue top Japanese talent once again, and Nakamura has a case as the most talented of those prospects. Nakamura was an Olympic medal hopeful in wrestling before the pandemic delayed those plans, and he instead decided to pivot to mixed martial arts, where he immediately looked every bit the part of a top prospect. Beyond obviously being a high-level wrestler per mixed martial arts standards, "Hybrid" has also shown some talent as a hard-hitting and aggressive striker. All of those skills were on display in his run through the first "Road to UFC" tournament, where he finished every fight within three and a half minutes, and while his August win over Fernie Garcia wasn't the massive statement in his UFC debut that some expected, it was three rounds of a one-sided fight that showed Nakamura could put together fifteen strong minutes.
Late replacement and UFC newcomer Vera figures to be a tricky next test; born in Ecuador and fighting out of Ryan Hall's camp, "Pequeno" uses an unorthodox style built around single shots from range and aggressive grappling. Vera's had enough craft and athleticism to find some finishes at the regional level, but it's also a low-percentage style that can sometimes result in Vera getting little done, as he did against Brad Katona on the 2023 season of TUF. Nakamura's tendency to answer problems through aggression and brute force figures to bite him at some point in the near future; it seems unlikely Vera can make that happen here, though there is a decent chance the UFC newcomer succeeds in slowing Nakamura down and making this a frustrating fight along the way. The pick is Nakamura via decision.
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