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Flyweights
#4 FLW | Alex Perez (24-6, 6-2 UFC) vs. #9 FLW | Matt Schnell (15-6, 5-4 UFC)ODDS: Perez (-380), Schnell (+290)
Perez’s last fight was for the UFC flyweight title, but it seems like he became a forgotten man in record time. Perez earned his shot with a solid march through the ranks that was capped off by a stoppage win over Jussier Formiga, getting the call to face Deiveson Figueiredo for the title in November 2020. Perez’s championship challenge did not turn out to be much—Figueiredo clamped on a guillotine and scored the win in under two minutes—and the divisional title picture then immediately moved on. Figueiredo fought Brandon Moreno on a record turnaround the next month, and the championship is still tied up in their series of fights. Perez endured a lost 2021 campaign, as he had every fight booking during the year fall through for a variety of reasons, including three of them against Schnell. Perhaps the fourth time is the charm. Schnell is in an interesting spot, as he has evolved well over the course of his UFC career but may once again be hitting a ceiling. “Danger” came to the Octagon with seemingly all the tools to be among the flyweight elite, showing both knockout power and a slick grappling game to go along with his long frame. However, after he proved surprisingly susceptible to being knocked out, Schnell effectively pivoted to a more cautious approach that allowed him to strike from range while occasionally breaking out his submission skills. That led to an impressive four-fight winning streak, but with Schnell suffering two losses in his last three outings, he may just be unable to get over the hump to title contention. There is a chance that Schnell rebounds, given that his size and the fact that Perez is both slow and likes to wrestle brings his submission game clearly into play. However, Perez is typically smart with his pressure and should be able to break down Schnell, whether it is with his effective leg kicks or just by finding the chin. The pick is Perez via second-round knockout.
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