Middleweights
#3 MW | Jared Cannonier (14-5, 7-5 UFC) vs. #4 MW | Derek Brunson (23-7, 15-5 UFC)Now riding a five-fight winning streak, Brunson’s late-career renaissance has been nice to see. Initially a blanketing wrestler early in his career, Brunson seemed to find an effective balance shortly after coming to the UFC, as he combined his wrestling and striking into a consistently effective package. Then Brunson fell in love with the knockout—and understandably so, given that he rode four straight first-round finishes in 2015 and 2016 to contender status. However, that approach eventually hit a spectacular ceiling against Robert Whittaker. Brunson sold out for the finish as much as any fighter you will ever see, leaving Whittaker to essentially play matador until he was suddenly able to stop the North Carolinian in his tracks. That led to a strange few years in which Brunson appeared both effective and broken. He was still capable of a quick knockout but would careen completely off the rails as soon as his opponent could hit him with some effective offense. Suddenly, in part thanks to some work with Henri Hooft, Brunson snapped into the best form of his career, starting with a 2019 win over Ian Heinisch. No longer overly aggressive or defensively flammable, Brunson has once again found a consistent approach centered around his powerful wrestling. He is still capable of being cracked and wobbled, but rather than implode, he has been able to double down on that takedown game and find a win where needed. With his latest victory coming in a one-sided affair over Darren Till, Brunson is now firmly back in the title picture for the first time since the Whittaker fight; and a win against Cannonier may just make him the next challenger.
Of course, Cannonier is also firmly in the mix as middleweight’s next top contender with a win here. Alaska’s “Killa Gorilla” initially came to the UFC as an undersized heavyweight and eventually found a bit of success at light heavyweight, but he has been an absolute revelation since cutting to 185 pounds. In his middleweight debut, which appeared to be a tough matchup against David Branch, it immediately became apparent that Cannonier was a problem in his new weight class, as he managed to stall a lot of the former World Series of Fighting champion’s wrestling and eventually close the show with a second-round knockout. Cannonier’s 2019 campaign only further affirmed the power he brings to the Octagon as a middleweight, as he chopped down Anderson Silva with leg kicks until an injury stoppage, then once again shut down a wrestler—in this case Jack Hermansson—before returning fire with a brutal finish. Whittaker temporarily stopped Cannonier’s momentum with a clear win, outmaneuvering the MMA Lab product and showing his clear advantage in speed and technical depth. However, a five-round decision over Kelvin Gastelum in August put Cannonier right back in the championship hunt, proving that he remains a difficult challenge to meet head-on.
This does not figure to be the most exciting fight, but it should be an interesting challenge for both men. Essentially, the result comes down to whether Brunson can succeed where Branch and Hermansson could not, as wrestling is his most obvious path to victory. Brunson is stronger than those two men, but leaning on that part of his game for a win might still be a difficult ask. Brunson himself has had his best performances against poor defensive wrestlers like Kevin Holland and the aforementioned Till, and Cannonier has proven extremely hard to control even against opponents who are able to get him to the mat. It seems likely that Cannonier can keep this standing more often than not, and from there, this appears to be his fight to lose. He may not fight at the highest pace, but neither does this version of Brunson as a striker, and in a shot-for-shot battle, Cannonier figures to both hit the harder strikes and cause more visible impact, particularly with his counterpart’s historical tendency to get stunned. This could be a bit tedious—particularly if Brunson’s wrestling threat shuts down the kicking game—but the pick is for Cannonier to take a decision win.
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