Preview: UFC 269 Prelims

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Heavyweights

#11 HW | Augusto Sakai (15-3-1, 4-2 UFC) vs. NR | Tai Tuivasa (12-3, 6-3 UFC)

ODDS: Sakai (-110), Tuivasa (-110)

This may not be the prettiest fight, but it should answer a lot of questions about both men, positively and negatively. Tuivasa got fast-tracked to main event status upon hitting the UFC, and it is understandable why. “Bam Bam” kicked off his Octagon career with two impressive knockouts, and his natural charisma—and penchant for post-fight “shoeys”—provided enough of a hook to make him a featured player when the UFC visited his native Australia. Tuivasa nearly won his headlining affair in Adelaide against Junior dos Santos but suffered a second-round knockout that started a frustrating slide. A loss to Blagoy Ivanov was not particularly surprising, but it was a shock at the time to see Tuivasa’s unstructured style fall apart against Sergey Spivak, who was assumed to be cannon fodder but instead found his way to a second-round submission victory. After taking over a year off, Tuivasa has looked more measured in the year-plus since, but the level of competition makes it hard to quantify the depth of those changes. Stefan Struve, Harry Hunsucker and Greg Hardy all had their respective issues and provided little resistance before Tuivasa managed to find a knockout. Up next for Tuivasa is a much stouter challenge in Sakai, who is looking to snap the first losing streak of his career. Up until his last two fights, Sakai was a successful if not particularly inspiring heavyweight, bringing a comparatively high pace to his fights and leveraging pressure and durability to make up for his lack of power. It was rarely pretty to watch, but it was enough to get the Brazilian to the main event level, where things started to go south. It was a surprise to see Sakai gas first against Alistair Overeem, who finished him in the championship rounds, and Jairzinho Rozenstruik put him out with one clean punch. Tuivasa is a softer challenge, enough so that Sakai should have some success making this an ugly fight, though it is difficult to tell where things go from there. Tuivasa’s takedown defense has been a clear deficiency, but Sakai is usually more focused on grinding his opponents against the cage. As a result, expect an ugly striking match broken up by Sakai attempting to smother Tuivasa against the fence. That might be enough to win, but the sense is that Tuivasa makes his moments of offense count more. Hopefully this fight is over sooner rather than later, but the pick is Tuivasa via ugly decision.

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