Light Heavyweight
NR | Michal Oleksiejczuk (14-4, 2-2 UFC) vs. NR | Modestas Bukauskas (11-3, 1-1 UFC)ODDS: Oleksiejczuk (-155), Bukauskas (+135)
These are two well-regarded light heavyweight prospects, but each of them could badly use a win. Leading into Oleksiejczuk’s UFC debut, there were some questions about exactly how his approach would work. Most of his available film saw him rely on eating damage before storming back once his opponent was tired. That just figured to get Oleksiejczuk finished against better athletes and harder hitters, but his UFC debut proved that theory wrong. Oleksiejczuk once again took a beating, this time against Khalil Rountree but stayed standing and eventually turned things around for a decision win. After a USADA suspension, Oleksiejczuk surprisingly became a quick knockout artist with wins over Gian Villante and Gadzhimurad Antigulov, which in turn led to a somewhat poetic loss against Ovince St. Preux. On that occasion, Oleksiejczuk was the fighter who hunted for a quick knockout and tired himself out, leading to a second-round submission defeat. Oleksiejczuk was almost immediately taken out of his last fight against Jimmy Crute and now seeks to rebound against a fellow Crute victim. Bukauskas came into the UFC with some rightful hype thanks to a strong regional career, but like Oleksiejczuk, there were some questions about how his approach would work. Bukauskas definitely has some tools as a rangy striker, but he has had trouble dictating pace or controlling his fights. A lot of Bukauskas’ wins saw him clearly losing his fights until he turned things around with one or two big moments. Bukauskas did look a lot sharper in his UFC debut—a first-round finish of Andreas Michailidis—but he gave up a lot of that momentum against Crute, who bullied him early with wrestling before scoring a knockout. Assuming Oleksiejczuk keeps his more aggressive form, he should dictate this fight, in which case it becomes a simple proposition: either he finishes Bukauskas early or tires, gets picked apart and possibly gets finished himself in the second and third rounds. It is a coinflip, but given that Bukauskas is coming off a fight where he got finished against someone willing to just go after him, the advantage has to go to Oleksiejczuk. The pick is Oleksiejczuk via first-round knockout.
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