Flyweights
#3 | Askar Askarov (12-0-1, 2-0-1 UFC) vs. #2 | Joseph Benavidez (28-7, 15-5 UFC)It appears that the window for Benavidez to become the UFC’s flyweight champion has finally closed. Benavidez narrowly lost the UFC’s inaugural flyweight title fight to Demetrious Johnson in 2012, but now established as the second-best flyweight in the world, he figured to be back in the title mix in short order; and indeed, he had earned a rematch by the end of 2013. Unfortunately for Benavidez, Johnson managed to knock him out roughly two minutes into that fight, and the UFC had little interest in a trilogy bout for as long as “Mighty Mouse” ruled over the division. Benavidez just continued to beat every fringe contender the UFC threw at him, save for a 2018 loss to Sergio Pettis after he missed 18 months with a torn ACL. Naturally, it was after that loss that Henry Cejudo upended Johnson to take the flyweight belt. Benavidez would have been in the top contender slot at any other point in his UFC career, continuing the feeling that his title hopes were snakebitten. As the flyweight division wound up in a constant state of flux, the one constant was that Benavidez kept winning, eventually leading to a fight with Deiveson Figueiredo for the vacant belt in February 2020. This appeared to be Benavidez’s last chance to claim UFC gold, but after a fun first round, the situation quickly went south. The two clashed heads, which led to a Figueiredo knockout victory shortly thereafter. To add even more insult to injury, Figueiredo missed weight and was unable to win the belt, and in lieu of any other obvious contenders, the UFC decided to put together a rematch. That went even worse for Benavidez, who was stunned early and essentially tried to survive until a gnarly fight-ending submission at the end of the first round. Benavidez now seems destined to go on the shortlist of best fighters to never win a UFC championship, but he practically never loses a non-title fight inside the Octagon. He will look to keep his stellar non-title tilt track record going strong against Askarov.
Russia’s Askarov was a strong signing due to his regional record, but there was some worry about how his style would play at an elite level. In Russia, Askarov mostly relied on turning fights into a non-stop scramble. “Bullet” was more than willing to put himself in poor positions on the mat, as long as it meant that he could exhaust his opponent in a grappling exchange. Against the better athletes and cardio machines that the UFC has to offer at 125 pounds, the concern was that Askarov would no longer be able to find the late finishes that marked his pre-UFC career. A draw in his UFC debut against Brandon Moreno has aged quite well in retrospect, and Askarov spent 2020 essentially proving that his approach works, as he exhausted Tim Elliott and Alexandre Pantoja on his way to one-sided wins. Askarov was firmly in the mix for a title shot even before this fight, and a win here would make him undeniable.
While much is on the line for Askarov with a win here, this is an equally crucial fight for Benavidez. Given the style matchup, a loss would come close to a definite end of his ability to hang as an elite flyweight. Askarov’s usual path to victory has been outgrappling and tiring out his opponents, and that is simply not something that works against Benavidez. While Figueiredo choked Benavidez unconscious in their last bout, he had essentially already won that fight via the brutality he brought on the feet. Prior to the Figueiredo bouts, Benavidez put on a master class against Jussier Formiga, who himself was on a run of outclassing opponents on the mat—including Figueiredo. Benavidez reversed and took over in every grappling exchange on his way to a dominant win. If Askarov were able to take over this fight on the mat, it would represent a huge sign of slippage for Benavidez as he enters his late 30s. The bigger concern might be on the feet. Benavidez’s tendency to crash into his opponents got him into particular trouble against a powerhouse like Figueiredo, and while Askarov is not a particularly renowned striker, the Russian has shown the ability to cause some damage, particularly in his fight against Elliott. If Benavidez is finally feeling the effects of a long, hard career, Askarov will certainly get the chance to blow things wide open. However, if the longtime title contender is anywhere near his usual self, he should be able to beat Askarov in his wheelhouse and score a clear victory. The pick is Benavidez via decision.
Continue Reading » France vs. Bontorin