Lightweights
NR | Rafael Fiziev (8-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. NR | Renato Carneiro (14-3-1, 6-3 UFC)Carneiro’s move to lightweight is an interesting gambit, particularly since things had stalled out after a successful run at 145 pounds. Thanks to injuries and inactivity, Carneiro was not particularly on anyone’s radar until he was surprisingly chosen for a high-profile slot opposite Jeremy Stephens in 2017. That turned into a breakthrough win for the Brazilian, and “Moicano” spent the next few years carving out a niche as a technical and well-rounded fighter. However, 2019 was a rough year, as Carneiro simply got blasted by more explosive fighters. Jose Aldo unloaded a barrage of strikes to put him out in the second round of their fight, while Chan Sung Jung finished him in under a minute. Carneiro made his lightweight debut in March and looked good, but it was also difficult to glean much from a 44-second win over Damir Hadzovic. This bout should tell us all a lot more. Fiziev came into the UFC with some muay Thai accolades, but his technical approach was unprepared for the wild power of Magomed Mustafaev, who ended his UFC debut in just 86 seconds. Still, he has rebounded well. After a bounce-back performance over Alex White, Fiziev scored a breakthrough win of his own against Marc Diakiese, showing off his ability to physically hang with and outpace a much stronger athlete. Fiziev does eat a lot of his opponent’s offense, but “Moicano” does not seem to have the sort of surprise to his game that can catch him cold. Fiziev also looks to be the stronger physical force, so his pressure stylings should be able to keep Carneiro on his toes and eventually overwhelm the Brazilian. The pick is Fiziev via third-round stoppage.
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