Lightweights
Tony Ferguson (24-3) vs. Donald Cerrone (36-11)Advertisement
It turns out that Cerrone is a pretty good lightweight. “Cowboy” ended 2015 with a one-sided loss to Rafael dos Anjos in a lightweight title fight, and that seemingly ended Cerrone’s days at 155 pounds. Despite his rapid turnaround between fights, Cerrone’s weight cut was known to be harsh, and shortly after the dos Anjos fight, he was booked for his welterweight debut. Cerrone in 2016 became a 170-pound contender in short order after four straight wins, but once the calendar turned, it looked like Cerrone’s long and tough career was finally catching up with him. Coming off of another quick turnaround, Jorge Masvidal sparked him, and after being forced to take some time off, Cerrone lost a clear decision to Robbie Lawler and got run over by Darren Till. It made for a winless 2017 campaign. Cerrone found a gentler landing in 2018, as he won bouts against Yancy Medeiros and Mike Perry over the course of the year while fighting a relatively normal schedule. Now, things are back to how they once were. Cerrone has returned to 155 pounds, rough weight cuts and all, but once the activity heads inside the cage, “Cowboy” looks as good as ever. The technical improvements he showed at welterweight have held firm, allowing Cerrone to keep range more comfortably than at any point in his career, and he has shown a willingness to rely on his always-underrated grappling game when needed. Alexander Hernandez got turned away in brutal fashion, and Cerrone managed to pick apart Al Iaquinta over five rounds in a main event slot. Cerrone is suddenly back to being a lightweight contender, and in the ultimate bit of nostalgia, the insanely quick turnarounds that have marked most of Cerrone’s career have also apparently returned. Just five weeks after the Iaquinta win, Cerrone faces one of the clear members of the lightweight elite in Ferguson.
In any other division, Ferguson would have received a title fight years ago, as he has won 14 of his 15 UFC bouts and put on exciting performances almost every time out. Alas, Ferguson has had one of the most snakebitten careers in recent memory. He was established as a top contender all the way back at the end of 2015 thanks to a win over Edson Barboza, who was a replacement for Khabib Nurmagomedov. That started a saga of one of the more cursed matchups in the sport’s history. It marked the first attempt to make a fight between Ferguson and Nurmagomedov; the second came shortly thereafter, with Ferguson being forced to pull out due to injury. Both men then made their cases as Conor McGregor’s top contender -- Ferguson with an impressive five-round win over dos Anjos, Nurmagomedov by smashing Michael Johnson -- but with the Irishman chasing bigger paydays, the obvious fight to make was Nurmagomedov-Ferguson. However, Nurmagomedov withdrew from the bout due to a botched weight cut. A fourth attempt saw a Nurmagomedov injury pave the way for Ferguson to win an interim title against Kevin Lee. From there, it looked like the UFC would finally put everything behind the effort to pit Ferguson against Nurmagomedov in a fight to end McGregor’s reign and crown a true undisputed champion. During a media tour, Ferguson tripped over a cable and tore up his knee, on April Fool’s Day, of course. Nurmagomedov has since become champion, leaving Ferguson to win a war over Anthony Pettis in October before jeopardizing his career with erratic behavior outside of the cage. He reportedly stayed up for 72 hours straight, became convinced that people were in his walls and was preoccupied by a litany of issues that are absolutely not concerning for a professional fighter. Assuming Ferguson’s madman persona inside the cage does not bleed into his real life too much, he remains one of the best fighters in the world.
Obviously, the main question concerns the state of Ferguson’s personal life. It is difficult to say what kind of mental state would impact “El Cucuy” negatively, given that he has always been an odd duck, but with so much going on personally and legally, there is a possibility that all those distractions will take away from his performance inside the cage. However, based on what he has shown thus far, this should still be a fight he should win. There are red flags, namely that Ferguson seems to start every fight by getting shellacked by his opponents and that a huge recent improvement from Cerrone is his getting over slow starts, so it is entirely possible that Cerrone cracks Ferguson immediately with something hard. Even so, Ferguson has proven ridiculously tough, and once he gets into a rhythm, he should take over this fight to a huge degree. Cerrone has found his success back at lightweight with a few different weapons, all of which Ferguson can neutralize. Cerrone has benefited from his longer reach relative to his opponents, but Ferguson is just as lanky and able to strike from a distance. Cerrone has also benefited from his power being able to scare off smaller opponents, but Ferguson’s ridiculous self-confidence means that he will still be willing to pressure as he takes abuse. Moreover, Cerrone’s wrestling should only find itself about even with Ferguson’s loose and wild style of grappling. Once Ferguson figures out exactly what he is doing, he should be able to pressure at will, and like his days at welterweight, Cerrone should eventually crack. The pick is Ferguson via third-round stoppage.
Next Fight » Rivera vs. Yan
Related Articles
