Bantamweights
Rani Yahya (26-9, 1 N/C) vs. Ricky Simon (14-1)
Odds: Simon (-125), Yahya (+105)
It's unclear why a fight between fighters from Brazil and the Pacific Northwest is third from the top on a card in Melbourne, but at the very least it's a showcase opportunity for Rani Yahya, one of the most underrated fighters in the sport. Yahya's somehow just 34 years-old, despite the fact that he's seemingly been around forever, has always looked 40 and has a style straight out of the early 2000's. Yahya's not a particularly good striker and his gas tank is limited, but he has a decent wrestling game and one of the craftier submission games in the sport, resulting in an ersatz Demian Maia impression that's always been way more effective than it should be at 135. Yahya had a four-fight win streak snapped in 2017 by Joe Soto, but it's taken under two years for Yahya to get right back to another, as a win here over Ricky Simon would give him another quartet. Maybe then someone will take notice.
As for Simon, it's been a fun two-fight UFC run thus far, albeit one that started in bizarre fashion. Merab Dvalishvili was able to overwhelm Simon's all-offense, no-defense style with constant pressure before diving into a Simon guillotine, but the Georgian managed to hang on to the final horn and seemingly earn a victory. But the referee ruled that Dvalishvili was unconscious once the fight ended, giving Simon a surprising submission win. After that came a fun decision over Montel Jackson, which makes it two-for-two as far as Simon bringing the excitement. He's a guaranteed action fighter who should be able to stick on this roster without much issue, but a win here over Yahya would go a long way towards him being talked about as more of a future contender.
Due to Yahya's poor gas tank, Simon figures to win the later rounds and earn a decision if this goes all 15 minutes, but the question is if either man can survive that long. Simon is all offense and power, particularly on the feet where Yahya is at his weakest, but if this goes to the mat, Simon's tendency to go for scrambles and constantly force action could result in Yahya's arms finding their way around his neck. Simon has a solid shot of pulling off a Soto-esque gameplan if he survives while trying to wear Yahya out, but Yahya knows his competencies and should be able to force this to the mat and find some success once he's there. The pick is Yahya via second-round submission.
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