Welterweights
Alex Oliveira (19-5-1) vs. Gunnar Nelson (16-3-1)Advertisement
At the risk of being too glib, how good is Nelson, really? The Icelander’s unique style, which blends high-level karate and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, is clearly effective, but he also has a resume that looks much worse with hindsight. Albert Tumenov remains a solid victory, but what were supposed to be big wins over Alan Jouban and Brandon Thatch have declined in value over time, particularly the latter. Not to get too negative, as Nelson is still clearly someone who can dominate an opponent outside of the Top 25, but his recent loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio -- as good as Ponzinibbio has looked lately -- does raise some questions about where Nelson falls along the spectrum of divisional elites versus high-level gatekeepers. A May bout with Neil Magny, scrapped due to a Nelson injury, would have answered a lot of questions, but instead, “Gunni” returns 17 months after that Ponzinibbio loss against someone else who is still trying to calibrate his standing at welterweight.
For being the other “Cowboy” -- and getting a 2016 main event against Donald Cerrone seemingly because of it -- Oliveira has carved out a solid career, even if he is still frustratingly difficult to figure out. Oliveira’s late-notice debut against Gilbert Burns was impressive, even in defeat, as Oliveira constantly survived on the ground against an elite BJJ player while showing some natural striking skills. Going forward, it has been difficult to predict what skills will be working for Oliveira in each appearance. For every fight where managed to use his natural power to bull around Tim Means, there is a bout where he gets absolutely schooled on the mat. See Cerrone. Even Oliveira’s last big win over Carlos Condit was a fight where “The Natural Born Killer” managed to outgrapple Oliveira in the first round before the Brazilian came back to get a submission in the second. At this point, it is probably best to think of Oliveira as an unstructured ball of high-level athleticism, and that has left him in a similar position to Nelson. He is clearly a Top-20 welterweight at worst, but exactly how far can that take him?
Fittingly enough for two fighters who are still surprisingly hard to read, this fight is also a hard one to figure out. Oliveira’s game is built around power over skill, which has not served him that well when he looks to lock up against better grapplers. He has done a great job of bullying around fighters who are not that technical, but more savvy fighters like Ryan LaFlare and even Condit have managed to exploit all the technical weaknesses in Oliveira’s game and secure some advantageous positions. On the other hand, none of it really mattered for LaFlare or Condit; once things reset in the next round, Oliveira’s athleticism and power took over once again, particularly in his extremely frightening knockout of LaFlare. That is the equation here. Nelson can probably get the better of things in the clinch, even with Oliveira’s physical strength, but as long as this fight is at a distance, there is always a solid chance that Oliveira can use his long reach and put out Nelson’s lights. Given Nelson’s tendency to take his time and let the fight flow before hunting for the finish, there is a huge concern over that possibility becoming a reality. If the Oliveira-Condit fight had not happened, the pick would probably be for the Brazilian “Cowboy” for those exact reasons, but Oliveira’s grappling defense remains a big concern, and Nelson is good enough on the mat that he probably will not let things reset once it gets there. This is an absolutely fascinating bout and a hard pick to make, but the call is Nelson via first-round submission.
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