Preview: UFC 216 ‘Ferguson vs. Lee’

Heavyweights

Derrick Lewis (18-5) vs. Fabricio Werdum (21-7-1)

ODDS: Werdum (-255), Lewis (+215)

ANALYSIS: If prefight antics were a faithful indicator of fight-night performance, Lewis would be looking at a first-round demolition of Werdum. In the run-up to this bout, “The Black Beast” was using his truck to save Hurricane Harvey victims in his native Houston, hanging with rapper Trae the Truth, trolling Paige VanZant on Instagram and ranting about McRibs. On the other hand, Werdum was hurling homophobic slurs at headliner Tony Ferguson -- a lightweight, by the way -- and defending his ongoing acceptance of cash and gifts from Chechen warlord and human rights criminal Ramzan Kadyrov.

Alas, fights are fought in the cage, and even at 40 years old, Werdum remains an uphill climb for even the best heavyweights in the world. The former UFC champion is at worst one of the five heavyweights to ever put on four-ounce gloves, and he is also the most versatile, consummate big-man grappler ever. Over the last five years, the once laughably awkward striker has matured into a legitimate standup threat courtesy of Rafael Cordeiro’s tutelage. “Vai Cavalo” has been fighting for over 15 years now, and it is apparent some of the tread is starting to come off the tires. However, the Brazilian’s unique combination of size, strength, savvy and technique is the sort of thing that travels well into middle age, especially at heavyweight, where the average age of a top-10 fighter is approximately 52 years old.

Beyond his social-media antics, Lewis is the heavyweight brawler MMA deserves. He is not just a big puncher; he is an unreal puncher. Actually, he is not just a puncher, either, considering the fact that, despite his 6-foot-3, 260-pound frame, the Texan throws head kicks, Superman punches and flying knees. Lewis excels when he can stun opponents with hard right hands and then step inside and unload with the short combinations of a Grizzly bear. That usually leads to his opponent being splayed out on the ground eating the fight-ending coffin nails. Though Lewis is still almost comically pedestrian on the floor, his takedown defense is moderately improved if still lacking and he has gotten better at escaping to his feet, where he can have the sort of “ultimate kickboxing” bouts he craves.

Yes, Werdum must protect his chin at all costs in this fight given the Texan’s power, but Lewis also must be wary. He was caught stepping inside on both Matt Mitrione and Shawn Jordan earlier in his UFC career, and if he wades lazily into range, a Werdum clinch knee could easily put out his lights; or the same sneaky counter jabs Werdum employed on Alistair Overeem in their recent rubber match could give the grappling ace all the chance he needs to stun him and put him on the mat. Do not forget that despite losing a majority decision in the last Overeem bout, Werdum used those clever jabs and a big clinch knee to rock the Dutchman badly in Round 3 and nearly steal the fight.

Werdum is no dummy. Yes, he can get lazy on occasion, throwing the wide or rushing shots that got him embarrassed by Junior dos Santos and Stipe Miocic in the past. However, given this particular style matchup, Werdum is far more likely to use a ranged attack on Lewis. Werdum is giving up two inches in reach, but Lewis excels with short, tight punches after hurting foes while standing tall with a high guard, doing little to protect his head and body. Lewis’ exposed legs and torso were natural targets for Travis Browne and Mark Hunt; Werdum figures to follow suit.

Lewis will be tasked with shooting the big right hand or surprise kick when Werdum gets too comfortable and pleased with his work, but he will need to absorb kicking punishment to be afforded those chances; never mind the anxiety of needing to stay off the floor with a fighter who can quickly submit him or mount him and pound him out. Werdum will win a decision if it remains a kickboxing affair, but if he can get Lewis down clean and take a dominant position, “The Black Beast” is unlikely to escape being pounded out or tapped.

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