Preview: UFC 213 ‘Nunes vs. Shevchenko 2’

Heavyweights

Fabricio Werdum (21-6-1) vs. Alistair Overeem (42-15)

THE MATCHUP: The first fight between these two took place way back in 2006, and Overeem owned most of the early exchanges, whether by striking, wrestling in the clinch or scoring takedowns. At the time, Werdum was so uncomfortable on the feet that he threw few strikes and landed even fewer, repeatedly backing himself into corners and waiting on Overeem to lead. Something clicked in the second round and the Brazilian began scoring with flurries of heavy strikes, forcing Overeem to take to the ground, where Werdum quickly tapped him with a kimura.

In their 2011 rematch under the Strikeforce banner, the parameters had shifted. Now a veteran of the heavyweight division, Overeem was in full “Ubereem” form, a muscle-bound monster who threw crushing knees in the clinch and swung away with powerful hooks at range. Werdum had changed, too. For long stretches of the fight, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt outlanded Overeem on the feet, sneaking crisp straight punches through his trademark high guard. Yet despite his obvious success, Werdum convinced himself that Overeem’s strength was too much for him and repeatedly threw himself to the ground, even going so far as to beg Overeem to enter his guard. When Overeem finally did consent to grapple, Werdum had injured his knee and exhausted himself with dozens of flops; the Dutchman hurt him in both of the last two rounds and took the decision.

The curious thing about this matchup is that in their own unique ways both Overeem and Werdum are bullies. Overeem has always been the sort to overwhelm opponents early, only to crumble when they would survive and rally. “The Reem” has adapted and improved his game in recent fights, dropping mass and learning to pester from long range rather than throwing himself headlong into a firefight. Nonetheless, he has been knocked out 10 times, and perhaps this knowledge is precisely that which causes Overeem to crumble under pressure.

Werdum, too, can be a bully. He has always played the class clown, but there is often a subtle hint of aggression to his trolling antics. Werdum likes to lure his opponents into traps, as if by tricking them he can render the win more satisfying. Even so, it has taken him much longer than it did Overeem to develop a real killer instinct, and he makes foolish mistakes when frustrated. He will tag Overeem on the feet only to flop passively to the floor, or he will grow tired of kickboxing and run straight into the end of Stipe Miocic’s fist. Whatever the end result, he who refuses to give Werdum the fight he wants is sure to open up some prime opportunities.

THE ODDS: Overeem (-125), Werdum (+105)

THE PICK: This is a difficult fight to call. Overeem is less durable, but there is no doubt in my mind that a single blow from Overeem could render Werdum unconscious. Werdum can take confidence from the success he enjoyed in the second fight, but he may also be wary of a counter from Overeem; and while Overeem has lost some of the muscle that seemed to give Werdum pause in the last fight, he has gained agility and speed. One thing settles it for me: Overeem may crumble, but Werdum violently self-destructs. He may run into a counter, burn too much energy or give away rounds making faces from his back -- whatever the method, Werdum has a weird way of shooting himself in the foot. In a fight that really could go either way, the pick is Overeem by second-round knockout.

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