Middleweights
Vitor Belfort (25-13) vs. Nate Marquardt (35-17-2)Marquardt has always been a superb offensive fighter. Now back under longtime trainer Trevor Wittman, he utilizes a smart jab to set up whirlwind combinations and chops away with kicks from long range. The timing that makes Marquardt such a dangerous kickboxer also enables him to complete 53 percent of his takedowns. His ground game can look a little outmoded at times, but Marquardt is a powerful enough athlete to stay safe on the ground and a crafty enough veteran to snatch a submission if the opportunity arises. Defensively, however, Marquardt has always been somewhat shaky. He can be backed into the fence and caught clean when he tries to respond with punches; and though Marquardt is a strong kicker, he has always struggled to defend kicks thrown at him. Unfortunately, fears about his chin have also forced Marquardt to fight more cautiously. He is still phenomenally dangerous, but he does not let his hands go as once he did.
Belfort was once known as a bully who needed to blitz his opponents into unconsciousness in the first round or else suffer a lopsided defeat. Though he is still prone to crumbling under pressure, since about 2009 or so, the old lion has been a more calculated striker. Belfort will still blitz if given the chance, but he tends to bide his time from the outside and look to utilize those powerful flurries as counters. Were Kelvin Gastelum’s chin even half as cracked as his own, Belfort’s accuracy and power might have notched him a win in his last fight. Like Marquardt, he is a far cry from his former self, but he is not done yet.
THE ODDS: Belfort (-150), Marquardt (+120)
THE PICK: Belfort and Marquardt both get knocked out easily these days, but the Brazilian is still the man who crumbles even before the final blow is dealt. Against Gastelum, however, Belfort fought back admirably even after surviving a near-finish. In his retirement fight, in front of an adoring Rio de Janeiro crowd, Belfort figures to be more than eager to go out on top; and if he does resist the urge to fold, the fact that he lets his hands go more willingly than Marquardt will be to his advantage. Factor in Belfort’s killer left high kick, and he should be able to net one last knockout win. Belfort by first-round KO is the pick.
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