Middleweights
Rashad Evans (19-5-1) vs. Daniel Kelly (11-1)Kelly is somewhat awkward. He is not light on his feet, he rarely moves his head and he throws stiff punches from his stiff, crouching, “Hendo”-esque stance. Nevertheless, Kelly is effective. He has excellent timing and a strong sense of the distance between himself and his opponent. He throws at a steady, unwavering clip. When opponents start to connect with frequency, and they usually do at some point in his fights, Kelly ups his aggression, piling forward with combinations and looking to lock up a clinch. In that range, Kelly’s judo background makes him an effective takedown artist, but he can also use his tremendous upper-body strength to wear down his adversary and prevent escape. Kelly’s pressure continues on the ground, where he is a powerful and stable submission artist.
Kelly’s age and inexperience are still limiting factors, but, somewhat ironically, Evans may very well look like the older fighter in this matchup despite being two years the judoka’s junior. Evans has battled injuries for the past several years, fighting only once each in 2015 and 2016 while sitting on the bench for nearly two years before that. Evans lost both of his last two fights badly and displayed all the signs of a deteriorating, aging fighter. Always prone to getting wobbled, he now looks more fragile than ever before. He no longer seems capable of matching his opponent’s pace and struggles to pull the trigger.
A few years ago, Evans might have made a meal of Kelly. He was renowned for his lateral movement and quick hands, both of which enabled him to set up beautiful blast doubles. He was a masterful phase-shifter, constantly using the threat of one weapon to create an opening for another. Even so, Evans was always an athlete first and foremost, a fighter who relied on his physical gifts to get the job done. Early MMA fans may have lauded his boxing, but he has always relied heavily on his powerful overhand right, accompanying this weapon with little else, other than a pawing jab and slapping left hook. Evans could still turn in an excellent performance. Still, the fact that he was flagged by two different athletic commissions for some sort of brain aberration does not inspire confidence, even if Evans himself insists the condition was preexisting.
THE ODDS: Evans (-220), Kelly (+185)
THE PICK: Evans’ last inspiring performance was his win over Chael Sonnen in November 2013. He displayed beautiful wrestling and top control in that fight before ultimately hammering Sonnen to pieces on the ground. Evans’ two recent defeats also came at the hands of some of the light heavyweight division’s best fighters, and the move to middleweight could very well reinvigorate him. Nonetheless, Kelly simply has more momentum at this point in his career. He is teak tough, bull strong and never shies away from a gunfight, whereas Evans has not willingly engaged in such a battle since 2011. If Evans cannot pull the trigger on his takedowns and punches, Old Man Dan will outwork and out-tough him, and he will very likely rattle his chin a few times in the process. The pick is Kelly by unanimous decision.
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