Preview: UFC 202 ‘Diaz vs. McGregor 2’

Welterweights

Rick Story (19-8) vs. Donald Cerrone (30-7)

THE MATCHUP: Cerrone made his name as an anytime-anywhere action fighter in the lightweight division. Now, as the weight cut becomes more challenging and his penchant for power striking grows, he has found a new home at welterweight, and no one could argue with his results so far. After a fairly easy introduction against Alex Oliveira, himself a lightweight, albeit a big one, Cerrone put on a tremendous performance against the resurgent Patrick Cote, handing the famously durable veteran his first true knockout loss.

Story, however, is a different, well, story. Rather than an aging fighter finding new life, Story is a frequent member of the top 10 at 170 pounds. He made his name as a wrestler, and to his credit he does it well. Whether outmuscling Johny Hendricks or suffocating Tarec Saffiedine, “The Horror” Story excels at pinning his opponents to the fence and going to work with short strikes. For years now, however, he has been an underrated striker. Story mitigates some occasionally holey defense with smart movement, and he strikes with power and authority, attacking the body and head with equal prejudice. Story’s boxing is built around a rigid straight left and cracking left hook, but he is also a powerful kicker, and as already mentioned, his short punches inside are something to be feared.

Cerrone’s victory over Cote proved that “Cowboy” has been fixing some of the problems that have haunted him throughout his career. Under the guidance of Brandon Gibson, Cerrone showed off new comfort in the pocket, beating Cote in boxing range, where most figured the Canadian would have the edge. This only strengthens Cerrone’s kicking game, with which he has chopped down and picked apart such lightweights as Eddie Alvarez, Jim Miller and Adriano Martins.

However, knockouts have only recently become a staple of Cerrone’s record. In the past, he typically found the finish on the ground, and his submission game remains a threat. Story prefers powerful top position attacks like the arm-triangle, but Cerrone is equally at home on top or on the bottom. He is also an effective takedown artist. Though Cerrone is not a perfectly technical wrestler, he times his takedowns well and knows how to transition from wrestling to striking in an instant. Of course, blending wrestling with striking is Story’s M.O., and he will likely be the bigger man. Cerrone has packed on some muscle as he marches into his 30s, but Story claimed to walk around between 187 and 191 pounds way back in 2011. How heavy he will be in the cage at UFC 202 is a mystery, but he certainly has not lost any mass over the last five years.

THE ODDS: Cerrone (-165), Story (+140)

THE PICK: With his emphatic victory over a former middleweight in Cote, there is reason to believe that Cerrone can beat Story, another powerful welterweight with heavy hands. With that said, there are notable differences between Story and Cote. Story is more comfortable pressuring than Cote. He has also never been knocked out in 27 fights, nor has he experienced the late-career scares that presaged Cote’s first real KO loss. Story is a better wrestler than Cote, happy to fight on the ground but perfectly content to hold his man against the fence and rip body shots in tight. Most crucially, Story is a southpaw. Of the seven men who have beaten Cerrone, only one was a full-time orthodox fighter. The man is vulnerable to lefties. Therefore, the pick is Story by unanimous decision.

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