Preview: UFC 201 ‘Lawler vs. Woodley’

Connor RuebuschJul 27, 2016

Welterweights
Matt Brown (20-14) vs. Jake Ellenberger (30-11)

THE MATCHUP: Brown has had a rough two years since his dramatic climb through the welterweight ranks. A fairly close fight with Robbie Lawler allowed Brown to show his potential, but Johny Hendricks and Demian Maia were both able to exploit Brown’s wrestling, which, though improved, remains his weakest skill. Ellenberger is a wrestler, too, but it has been several years since “The Juggernaut” successfully outwrestled an opponent. Even at the peak of his powers, Ellenberger was more effective as a striker than a wrestler in MMA.

Ellenberger’s problem lately has been a lack of tenacity. Easily one of the hardest punchers in welterweight history, he has been reluctant to pull the trigger for years now, dating back to his 2013 loss to Rory MacDonald. Against the Canadian, Ellenberger was speared with jab after jab for 15 minutes straight, with no effective retaliation. Josh Koscheck, himself winless since 2012, represents Ellenberger’s only win since March 2013.

Brown, on the other hand, has not looked shopworn or deflated in his recent losses, only outmatched. Ellenberger represents a far more favorable style matchup for the self-proclaimed “technical brawler.” Brown is a natural pressure fighter who excels at stalking his opponent and landing awkward but powerful strikes from all angles. Brown’s Thai clinch is among the best in MMA -- in fact, it may be the very best. Not limited to a simple double-collar tie, Brown’s clinch attack is extremely versatile, forcing his opponents to defend the knees, only to dump them with a quick foot sweep or crack them behind the ear with a vicious elbow. Brown’s defense remains a liability. When an opponent counters, his attack loses steam and he often feels forced to step back and reset. He is also notoriously vulnerable to the body, though he has fought through enough painful liver shots to prove that toughness is not a problem.

THE ODDS: Brown (-285), Ellenberger (+235)

THE PICK: Brown’s style is simultaneously the best and worst thing possible for Ellenberger. On the one hand, Brown is hittable and accepts the kind of exchanges that will allow Ellenberger the chance to land thudding power shots; on the other, he presses a frenetic pace and applies ferocious pressure at every opportunity. If Ellenberger is renewed, then his power wrestle-boxing could be the antidote to Brown’s pressure. However, considering the nervous attitude Ellenberger has shown in the last three years, Brown’s pressure is more likely to render him defensive and ultimately defenseless. The pick is Brown by second-round TKO.

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