Nearly three years have passed since Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira’s last win. | Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com
Heavyweights
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (34-9-1, 5-5 UFC) vs. Stefan Struve (25-7, 9-5 UFC)Sadly, the great Nogueira is at the end of his tether. It is both a miracle and a travesty that he can get into the cage given his physical state, which includes a barely-functioning eye, shot hips, busted knees, an increasingly crackable chin and a laundry list of other maladies. Skill-wise, most of Nogueira’s game is still there. He boxes reasonably well, slinging solid combinations as he moves forward and punches his way into the clinch. He is surprisingly effective on the inside, with good use of head pressure in the clinch and sharp punches on clinch breaks. He has never been a great wrestler, either offensively or defensively, but he makes up for it by routinely hitting sweeps from his back. The deep half guard is his particular specialty. An array of smooth passes and submissions complete his still-dangerous grappling game, which opponents must respect.
Struve is an enormous 6-foot-11, but he has struggled throughout his career to use that height to keep his opponents at bay. While he flashes the occasional jab and front kick and seems to be getting better in that facet, he is really at his most comfortable brawling with hooks in the pocket and dropping the occasional knee. The problem is that he has no defensive skills of which to speak, aside from his length, and he increasingly struggles to take a clean punch. Wrestling is the weakest area of Struve’s game, as his takedowns are not terribly effective and he has zero ability to defend shots. He is quite dangerous from his back, though, with a nice arsenal of sweeps, slick triangle-armbar setups and a guard that is difficult to pass.
BETTING ODDS: Struve (-160), Nogueira (+140)
THE PICK: This is a tough fight to pick. Nogueira is well past his prime and has not beaten an elite opponent in half a decade, while Struve has suffered a litany of health issues and was not durable before that. On the feet, Struve likely has the edge given his size, length and greater power. Nogueira is the better clinch fighter and wrestler, and he should have a substantial advantage if he can get on top. This is not a particularly confident pick, but I think Struve should be able to keep Nogueira mostly on the outside, pick him apart with shots and survive on the mat if it goes there. The pick is Struve by decision.
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