Preview: UFC 187 ‘Johnson vs. Cormier’

---

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Donald Cerrone (27-6, 14-3 UFC) vs. John Makdessi (13-3, 6-3 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: The inimitable Cerrone gets a late-notice change of opponent, as Khabib Nurmagomedov bowed out due to an injury and Makdessi stepped in. The Canadian knocked out Shane Campbell in the opening frame at UFC 186 less than a month ago, and prior to that dropped a contentious decision to Alan Patrick Silva Alves. Cerrone has been exceptionally active, winning two fights -- against Benson Henderson and Myles Jury -- in 15 days back in January to cap a streak that now includes seven consecutive victories.

Striking is Makdessi’s wheelhouse. He has a deep background in traditional martial arts, which shows itself in his repertoire of spinning strikes, hook kicks and side kicks off the lead leg, but the real basis of his approach is a crisp boxing game. His jab is sharp and consistent, and he mixes up the rhythm and location constantly. He excels at setting his preferred range and fighting long despite his lack of height, and his right hand is vicious and powerful. Makdessi is dangerous both moving forward and on the counter, with a particular gift for countering kicks in the pocket. His is extremely sound defensively and is hard to hit cleanly, particularly to the head, and works at a quick but not out-of-control pace. Defensive wrestling is obviously a must for a striking-first fighter, and Makdessi is excellent in that facet, with heavy hips, good balance and great use of a hard overhook. On the mat, he knows enough to defend from his back and scramble to his feet, and that is essentially it.

While Cerrone’s striking tends to receive all of the attention, he is a fully three-dimensional fighter with a diverse offensive arsenal. Range striking is still his bread and butter, however, and he showcases tremendous variety. He probes behind a sharp jab and front kicks, strings together the straight right and left hook in combination and finishes with brutal round kicks at all levels. His stepping knee to the body serves as a vicious counter to aggressive opponents who want to step into the pocket or change levels for a takedown. He works at an excellent pace and mixes all of these attacks beautifully, and by the second or third round, it is difficult to tell what is coming next. With that said, Cerrone is hittable, particularly early in the fight, and as a pure out-fighter who relies on rhythm and space to operate, he is allergic to consistent pressure and being pushed toward the fence. The rest of Cerrone’s game does not receive enough attention. His takedowns are explosive, with a preference for trips and knee taps, and his defensive wrestling is excellent. If taken down, he immediately looks for attacks from his back, preferring the triangle-armbar-omoplata chain, or kicks off and gets back to his feet. He is lethal in transition and immediately looks to jump to the back and finish with a rear-naked choke when his opponent is hurt.

THE PICK: This is an intriguing fight, but it should substantially favor Cerrone. Makdessi is an excellent striker, but he likes to operate in the middle of the cage and at the same distances as Cerrone; however, he does not have the kind of pressure game that has given the American problems in the past. In that kind of fight, “Cowboy” should have a substantial advantage. I expect him to get touched a bit early but to eventually impose his low-kicking game, wear down Makdessi with shots to the body and eventually hurt him with a big shot and then jump on the choke. The pick is Cerrone by submission in the second round.

Next Fight » Travis Browne vs. Andrei Arlovski