Preview: UFC 184 ‘Rousey vs. Zingano’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Josh Koscheck (17-8, 15-8 UFC) vs. Jake Ellenberger (29-9, 8-5 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Two venerable and accomplished welterweights meet in what likely represents the last chance for both fighters in the UFC. Former title challenger Koscheck, one of the stars of the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” is at the end of his tether following a 0-3 stretch and has not won a fight in more than three years. Ellenberger was once a consensus top-five welterweight but is winless in his last three appearances and 2-4 in his last six.

What is going on with Ellenberger? From a technical perspective, it is difficult to say, and he does not seem to have lost much of his prodigious speed and athleticism. He has always been a frontrunner who depends on building his confidence early in the fight, but that tendency has seemingly run out of control, to the extent that he seems to shut down and go through long periods of inactivity.

The ridiculous power is still there, and when he lands his forward-moving punching combinations, he can bomb away; however, the clever setups, cracking kicks and counters he once possessed seem to have departed. He is a plus wrestler with excellent takedown defense and great drive on his preferred double-legs, and on the ground, he can maintain a heavy base and good posture to land potent strikes from the top.

There is no denying that Koscheck has declined from his peak. The former NCAA wrestling champion’s game has been pared down to its bare essentials, and while he remains a plus athlete, he is slower and less diverse than he was in his prime. At range, Koscheck probes with an occasional jab and an open hand that “accidentally” yields eye pokes and obscures his opponent’s vision. The real strength of his striking repertoire is his potent overhand right. He mixes in the sporadic round and front kick, but that is essentially it. As a wrestler, he is difficult to take down and shoots one of the sport’s most technical and forceful blast doubles, and if he can get to top position, he controls effortlessly and lands big shots. It is a simple, straightforward game executed with still-imposing speed and power, even at age 37.

THE PICK: Unless Ellenberger has somehow gone from “strangely declining” to “completely shot” in the last three months, this fight is his to lose. Koscheck’s chin appears to be cracked for good, and his physical decline from his once-awesome peak is clear. This will either go to a slow-paced decision -- neither fighter produces much offense -- or will end in a convincing knockout, and the latter seems more likely. The pick is Ellenberger by knockout via counter combination in the first round.

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