Preview: Bellator 131

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LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

Muhammed Lawal (13-4, 5-3 Bellator) vs. Joe Vedepo (17-8, 4-2 Bellator)

THE MATCHUP: Vedepo steps up on extremely late notice to take on promotional centerpiece “King Mo” following an unfortunate training injury to Tom DeBlass. Lawal lost a controversial decision to Quinton Jackson on Bellator’s pay-per-view debut but got back on track with a knockout over Dustin Jacoby in September; Vedepo, meanwhile, has managed to put together a three-fight winning streak against mediocre competition under the Bellator banner.

Even as he has experimented with different striking styles, the real strength and core of Lawal’s game has always been his wrestling. A near international-caliber competitor, Lawal possesses a full arsenal of singles, doubles and ankle picks that he chains together nicely, especially when he can force his opponents to the cage. When he gets top position or can force the fight into a wrestling-style control position such as the top ride, he delivers brutal, relentless ground strikes until his opponent goes to sleep. Perhaps because of his formerly absurd and still excellent athleticism, however, Lawal never really learned to integrate his takedowns with his striking; that has led to far too many shots from the outside, where he can easily be stuffed or countered with uppercuts and knees. He prefers to box and can throw a sharp jab and long cross, but he struggles to put his punches together in combinations. More importantly, Lawal is nothing short of a mess defensively, with intermittent and ineffective head movement and a tendency to overshoot on his strikes and turn his head away so his opponents’ shots land on his temple or ear. Lawal is still a monster of a wrestler and top specialist, but the rest of his game has frankly failed to develop as we once thought it might.

Vedepo, an Iowa native and UFC veteran who normally fights at middleweight, has a strong wrestling game of his own. While he is not particularly quick or explosive, Vedepo is brutally strong and suffocating once he actually gets his hands on his opponent, switching back and forth between singles, doubles, trips and throws. He is a stifling grinder in the clinch and sticks to his opponent like glue once the fight hits the mat, making heavy use of the top ride and front headlock. He maintains a boulder-like base on top and can snag the occasional submission, mostly in transition. His striking, consisting mostly of short hooks, exists almost entirely to cover his clinch entries and shots, and it is effective enough for that purpose.

THE PICK: This is a squash match. Lawal is much bigger, more athletic, a superior wrestler, a better striker and a more diverse grappler. Barring some disaster, he should easily stuff Vedepo’s takedowns, impose his own and bomb away from top position. Lawal by knockout in the second round is the pick.

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