WEC 53 Preview: The Main Card

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Dominick Cruz vs. Scott Jorgensen
UFC/WEC Bantamweight Championship

Say this for Dominick Cruz: outside of Lyoto Machida, he probably has the most puzzling standup style in mixed martial arts. That’s because Cruz uses excellent footwork, feints and constantly-changing angles to befuddle opponents, who are often left guessing where he’s coming from and where he’s going once he’s done striking.

It’s a bit of a gambit for Cruz, who often comes in with his hands down and his chin exposed, but it’s worked so far. The best counter to a style like Cruz’s is to deny him room to operate, and to have well-timed leg kicks and a big right-hand counter ready when he lunges in.

For every bit of flash and panache Cruz brings, Jorgensen is a blue-collar type. He takes a good shot, recovers quickly, and gets his licks in, along with having good takedowns and the ability to work at a fast pace. What makes Cruz’s standup more effective is that the 5-foot-9 lightweight also wrestles well and has very good takedown defense.

For Jorgensen, this five-round challenge is a long haul, but if he can make a few things happen, he’ll take some shine off Cruz’s game. First, he’s got to be able to get a takedown, and hold Cruz down, scoring points and making the champion use up stamina. Also, Jorgensen must deny Cruz the long range necessary to set up his strikes.

Given a couple steps to shimmy in and use his patented angles and feints, Cruz is exceptionally hard to figure out. He smacks you and then exits before you can react. If Jorgensen can’t counter with a good, compact strike from this position, Plan B will be a balls-out, push-him-against-the-fence strategy.

Jorgensen has a good right hand and a big-time chin, but he will have to turn this into a down-and-dirty trench war to win. If he stands around waiting to counter and can’t be effective on the feet, Cruz will simply have too many options and weapons. It’s an interesting fight, and one which should answer a lot of questions about both guys.

I like Cruz in a decision, with Jorgensen making a late surge that falls just short on the cards.