Mauricio “Shogun” Rua has not recorded back-to-back wins since 2009. | Photo: Sherdog.com
Light Heavyweights
Mauricio Rua (21-6, 5-4 UFC) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (14-1, 6-1 UFC)
Rua, a decorated veteran with UFC and Pride Fighting Championships titles to his credit, is a proven commodity against top competition. His UFC on Fox 4 triumph over Brandon Vera was far from picture perfect, but “Shogun” managed to survive his cardio issues to score a fourth-round technical knockout. The former Chute Boxe representative tends to expend energy quickly, but he has shown the ability to battle through adversity even when thoroughly fatigued; witness his five-round war with Dan Henderson at UFC 139.
Like anyone with a Chute Boxe affiliation, Rua has his moments of breathtaking aggression. Recently, however, he has taken to using his muay Thai to close distance and force takedowns and clinches. This was the strategy against Vera, who was much more comfortable striking on the outside. It could also prove beneficial against the rangy boxing of the 6-foot-5 Gustafsson. “The Mauler” understands timing, movement and angles well, and he will land a variety of jabs, uppercuts and crosses when given the opportunity. He has also displayed above-average takedown defense when necessary, though not against someone with as varied an arsenal as Rua.
Gustafsson will only enjoy a half-inch reach advantage against his Brazilian adversary, so his lateral movement will be more important than ever, especially because Rua is at his most effective when landing rapid-fire punches and knees in close quarters.
Both fighters possess plenty of pop, but if “Shogun” begins to gas in the later stages of the bout, it will be Gustafsson who will have the better chance of teeing off. A tired Rua will also be vulnerable on the mat, as Gustaffson is good in scrambles and could conceivably secure a submission should his opponent get sloppy.
The Pick: Rua needs to utilize leg and body kicks to minimize distance before looking to take the fight to the ground. As explosive as he once was, he will not win a prolonged standup battle with Gustaffson. However, the Swede will prove well-rounded enough to counter Rua’s attacks wherever they come from to earn a hard-fought decision.
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