UFC Fight Night 20 Preview

Efrain Escudero vs. Evan Dunham

The Breakdown: The long simmering rivalry between Oregon and Mexico comes to a head when Dunham and Escudero match wits and fists in a fight that could determine the next lightweight golden boy. While the rivalry between Oregon and Mexico may be overstated, a win for either fighter spells a prominent spot in a division starving for contenders.

Although both men first developed notoriety for their grappling, Escudero’s windmill power punches and Dunham’s surprisingly astute counterpunching have distinguished them from the sea of quality grapplers already on the scene. Dunham’s down-the-pipe punching style will be frustrating for “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 8 winner, but his habit of dropping his hands only makes the prospect of Escudero serving him the chin check special all the more likely. The thought of watching Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em robots redux makes this fight more than just a jiu-jitsu special, but odds are someone will take this fight to the mat when the exchanges start turning into a full-scale recreation of the Battle of Helm’s Deep. Although Dunham’s physical strength and excellent balance greatly improve his unrefined wrestling, his upright stance will make him a prime target for Escudero’s takedowns.

Considering both fighters work best from top control, the man forced to work off his back will be at a distinct disadvantage. Unless Dunham can control distance with his punches and get his sprawl deep enough on Escudero’s shots, he will find his combinations interrupted by an unwelcome trip to the canvas.

The X-Factor: Easy as it was to be impressed by Escudero’s vulgar display of power on Cole Miller’s chin at UFC 103, shooting from the hip against a counterpuncher will only result in a face full of fist. Time and time again, Marcus Aurelio tried to land overhand bombs on Dunham at UFC 102, and he ended up on the wrong end of his left hand counter. More importantly, Dunham’s ability to consistently land punches forced Aurelio to try for takedowns from outside the pocket, which gave the unbeaten Oregonian the precious split second he needed to sprawl. If Escudero cannot find a way to collapse the pocket, this fight will turn into a Sisyphean task in short order.

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The Bottom Line: One certainty exists in this fight; it will be more fun to watch than an episode of “Steven Seagal: Lawman” -- just about the highest praise one can give to any form of entertainment. Early on, the fight will favor Dunham as he gets the better of the exchanges, but once Escudero starts measuring his punches and segueing into takedowns, he will take control and never relinquish it. This “Fight of the Night” winner ends with Escudero taking a decision.