UFC Fight Night 18 Breakdown: The Prelims

Gleison Tibau vs. Jeremy Stephens

The Breakdown: Brought in on less than a month’s notice to replace the injured Efrain Escudero, Tibau (16-6) presents an even bigger challenge for Stephens. “Lil’ Heathen” has the striking to lobotomize just about anyone in the lightweight division, but his mat work makes him vulnerable to grapplers. Tibau’s penchant for weight cutting -- which makes him a physically dominating force and significantly improves his shopworn wrestling -- makes this an especially difficult test for Stephens (14-4).

The X Factor: Trying to stop a ginormous opponent from securing takedowns will try Stephens, but he should know that Tibau often engages on the feet before bull rushing in search of a takedown. The problem with that approach is that Stephens is a pure power puncher who’s always swinging to end the fight. If and when Tibau looks for his rhythm on the feet, he better hope Stephens does not have that atomic right uppercut ready to turn him into a human Pez dispenser.

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The Bottom Line: Even in this day and age, some fights still boil down to striker versus grappler. The deciding factor in this one has everything to do with Stephens’ composure -- or lack thereof. Having knockout power is not enough on its own, and Stephens often forgoes setting up his strikes in favor of unleashing the payload and hoping something lands. That will not cut it against Tibau, who will plant Stephens on his back and overwhelm him with his unique combination of technical mastery and physical superiority.