UFC Fight Night 18 Breakdown: The Main Card

Carlos Condit vs. Martin Kampmann

Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’2/170 lbs.
Age: 24
Hometown: Albuquerque, N.M.
Team: Arizona Combat Sports
Record: 22-4

The Breakdown: A walking case study in offensive dynamism, Condit is the kind of guy who would be foaming at the mouth for six-receiver formations in the NFL if he weren’t so good at making mean faces and keeping the local ICU busy. What really makes Condit effective, though, is that his reputation as a pedigreed kickboxer hides his surprising propensity for slick guard work -- a skill undoubtedly fostered by his apparent disinterest in turning his bouts into wrestling clinics.

While making yourself into a takedown dummy will get you an MMA Darwin Award more often than not, Condit’s serpentine reach and traditional muay Thai style allow him to control opponents from afar with kicks and from up close with the Thai clinch. What really makes it all come together, though, is Condit’s knack for submissions. At a time when scoring submissions off your back in MMA is a losing proposition, Condit’s guard became the bogeyman of the WEC.

What is worrisome about Condit’s style as it relates to Kampmann’s, however, is that Condit has never had to face an opponent who has an equal measure of offensive wizardry and the technical acumen to make it sing. While turning to his jiu-jitsu has been Condit’s saving grace in the past, he’ll need to rely more on his reach to keep Kampmann at bay. A close-quarters clash favors the Dane’s superior wrestling and reference-quality striking.

The X Factor: Hiromitsu Miura gave Condit fits at WEC 35 by mixing takedowns with slick boxing despite giving up a few hundred miles’ worth of reach to the rangy New Mexico native. That is a weakness that Kampmann and the cerebral Xtreme Couture camp are sure to zone in on. Unless Condit is ready with an effective counter strategy, all the offense in the world won’t save him when his opponent is ready with an answer for every move.

Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’0/170 lbs.
Age: 26
Hometown: Aarhus, Denmark
Fighting out of: Las Vegas
Team: Xtreme Couture
Record: 14-2

The Breakdown: Kampmann’s rise to prominence now seems more certain than ever thanks to his long overdue move to the welterweight division. An odd conclusion since cutting it in the UFC’s 170-pound class makes getting into Harvard Law School look like the slacker’s way out.

Much like Condit, Kampmann’s mastery of both striking and grappling has gotten him in a position to take on a division that is stacked like Betty Davis. What separates the two, however, is Kampmann’s more technically proficient striking and surprising wrestling acumen. While Condit relies on simply overwhelming opponents with offense, Kampmann excels at dissecting his quarry with all the precision of a cyborg neurosurgeon. Which means only one thing: The dawn of cyborg MMA is coming and coming soon.

The X Factor: One serious flaw in Kampmann’s game thus far has been his beard. He got served the chin-check special quite a few times as a middleweight. Whether that is owed to Kampmann fighting against opponents who dwarfed him or whether it is an actual issue with his brain’s taste for punishment remains to be seen. If it becomes an issue against Condit, he won’t have a chance to do much of anything except curl up and wait on the referee.

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The Bottom Line: It’s easy to confuse Condit’s success in the WEC with the success that Kampmann has had in the UFC. In fairness to Condit, he won his bouts in impressive fashion. Yet he’s always been reliant on having the offensive firepower to overwhelm opponents or simply seize on a moment’s carelessness. He can count on neither against Kampmann, who has the overall striking acumen that Condit still lacks and the takedowns needed to knock Condit off his rhythm should the need arise.

The variable that Condit should use, his reach, is something he has yet to fully apply inside the cage. Even then, Kampmann’s fight IQ is the intangible that Condit has no answer for. Watch for an entertaining first round that gradually tilts toward Kampmann as a prelude to a second-round submission win for the man carrying on the legacy of Tommy Hearns and Bret Hart.