UFC 98 Preview: The Main Card

Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida

The Breakdown: Opportunistic bomber meets precision tactician as Evans, fresh off knockout wins over Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin, attempts his first defense of the UFC light heavyweight strap against the Zen violence of Lyoto Machida. While the temptation is to set this up as a clash of Machida’s disciplined counter-striking and Evans’ flair for the violently dramatic, the reality is that Evans’ ability to get after Machida without paying a fight-ending toll is the riddle that he must solve. That is why Evans must resolve to make his wrestling as much a part of his game plan as his concussive right hand.

Relying only on finding a home for a power punch, even with 25 minutes’ worth of fight time, will leave Evans frustrated and dissected. Machida thrives on his opponent’s aggression and subsequent frustration. However, if Evans can keep Machida from finding a rhythm by stepping forward with punches and immediately changing levels for a takedown, he’ll keep Machida from getting his counters off and open up his own opportunities to score with ground-and-pound. Obviously Machida’s jiu-jitsu is well regarded and for good reason. Staying upright with him, though, will get Evans the same thing as the others who tried it -- a shattered ego and a Darwin Award to go with it.

The X Factor: As much as fans waste their breath bemoaning the tactical nuances of Machida’s style, Evans’ bizarre habit of giving away rounds is far more worrisome. Getting behind on the judges’ cards against Machida would be a disaster for Evans, who can’t rely on Machida handing him the fight via some foolish mistake. The early going will be critical for Evans. He must at least break even with Machida or risk working from behind against a fighter whose entire style is built on reference-quality fundamentals.

The Bottom line: Evans has started slow throughout his career, but his explosive style and finisher’s instincts have made up the difference. However, against an opponent who simply doesn’t make mistakes, Evans’ modus operandi is useless. Expecting him to suddenly mix his wrestling back into the game -- something he struggled to do against Michael Bisping -- has all the realism of a Dan Brown novel. The “Da Vinci Code” of MMA will remain unsolved Saturday, as Machida picks apart Evans before putting him away late. Make sure you set your television’s volume to max so you can hear the entire UFC brass let out a groan when the belt is handed over to the man who was never supposed to get it.