UFC 97 Breakdown: The Main Card

UFC Middleweight Championship
Anderson Silva vs. Thales Leites

The Breakdown: The latest entrant in the Silva sweepstakes, Leites is a slick grappler with dominating top control and the takedowns to back it up. In other words, Leites is the supposed prototype for beating Silva, a precision striker who thrives on turning his opponents’ faces into high-protein gruel while avoiding any unnecessary entanglements on the mat. If you’re wondering why Leites is the betting underdog, it’s because the mythic prototype for beating Silva may be as passé as driving a Hummer.

In bouts with Dan Henderson and Nate Marquardt, Silva proved he can not only survive on the ground but turn his opponents’ desperation to get him on the mat against them. Whether it be seizing on submission opportunities with unexpected vigor or uncorking cranium-crunching ground-and-pound, Silva’s overall offensive brilliance -- not just his striking -- is the Rubik’s cube of pain that awaits Leites. If Leites knows what’s good for him, the first part of his plan will be to bypass his borderline masochistic fetish for getting beat up by superior strikers; just watch his fights with Marquardt and Martin Kampmann.

From there, Leites’ takedowns and top control are, at least on paper, poison to Silva. The problem lies in whether or not Leites can actually hold down Silva long enough to win rounds or cinch a submission. Whoever came up with the idea that Silva will fall into a scorpion death lock the second he hits the mat needs to get his or her facts in order. If Leites manages the improbable, the task will not be easy.

The X Factor: Leites has the tools to beat Silva, but the same was said about many of the fighters the champion sent to the ER. This really boils down to mental and physical conditioning for Leites, as Silva is not the kind of fighter one can beat on paper. Style clashes and strategic nuances fall by the wayside when you’re faced with the sport’s pound-for-pound paragon, and Leites has come up small in huge spots before. It’s a flaw that has crippled many a career, but if Leites can overcome it, he may have Silva beat.

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The Bottom Line: It’s hard to fathom Leites being the man to topple Silva. He only got this title shot thanks to Marquardt’s foul flurry in their UFC 85 match and the ongoing dearth of contenders in the division. Then again, strange circumstances play well in the stage of the unexpected that is combat sports. Expect the unexpected. Maybe Silva will wear a different T-shirt to the cage this time, or he could revive the Michael Jackson impersonator routine from his days in Pride Fighting Championships. Do not, however, expect a victory for Leites, who will make the mistake of trying to get Silva down from the clinch and end up with a face that looks like a Mr. Potato Head put together by a 3-year-old.