UFC 93 Breakdown: The Main Card

Jeremy Horn vs. Rousimar Palhares

Jeremy “Gumby” Horn Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 6’2/185 lbs.
Age: 33
Hometown: Omaha, Neb.
Fighting out of: Salt Lake City, Utah
Record: 80-18-5

The stakes: For a while there, I really thought Horn would outlast the cockroaches and Cher, but it looks like time hasn’t spared the man they call “Gumby.” Underwhelming nicknames aside, he has been on a slide of late, having lost his last two UFC bouts while looking like a fighter on his last legs. At UFC 93, Horn needs a vintage showing against the heavily favored and far less experienced Palhares.

The breakdown: As much as Horn is accustomed to being the superior grappler, he has to come to grips with the fact that he can’t keep up with the younger generation of jiu-jitsu hybrids populating the scene. Instead, he has to use his encyclopedic knowledge of the game and preternatural cage savvy to rattle his inexperienced quarry.

So while Palhares is diving forward in search of takedowns, Horn should be mixing it up with strikes and looking for his own opportunities to take the top position. That will certainly be the key to this bout for Horn, who could easily upset his junior counterpart if he can control the mat action by out-wrestling Palhares. Otherwise, Travis Fulton/Horn IV will be sounding like a good idea.

Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’8/185 lbs.
Age: 28
Hometown: Dores Do Indaia, Minas Gerais, Brazil
Fighting out of: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Record: 8-2

The stakes: After dismantling Ivan Salaverry and dropping a dismal decision to Dan Henderson, Palhares has gone from can’t-miss blue-chipper to “that Brazilian guy with the funny name.” Thankfully, the dearth of middleweight contenders remains bleak as ever and Palhares can get the stars lined up all over again with a submission spectacle against an MMA elder statesman.

It’s not all feast for Palhares, though, as another loss would have him joining the likes of Robbie Lawler and Phil Baroni in the UFC coulda, woulda, shoulda hall of fame. Not the greatest company in the world when you consider having to wake up every day to the sweet serenade of Baroni’s ear-piercing Long Island accent.

The breakdown: If Palhares’ fight with Dan Henderson taught us anything, it’s that he doesn’t much enjoy chasing opponents around the cage in search of a miracle takedown. Luckily for Palhares, he has an opponent who doesn’t pose the same threat on the feet as Henderson, nor does Horn have the international wrestling experience that Henderson used to such great effect in stymieing Palhares.

What Palhares must be conscientious of is getting this fight on the ground within the first minute of every round because his striking game is about as potent as Hugh Hefner minus medical magic. Even if it means pulling guard and conceding top control to Horn, Palhares cannot afford to waste precious time lunging for takedowns when he could be working his way toward landing that reverse Indian cobralock. It’s gotta happen sometime.

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The bottom line: For all of Horn’s experience and know how, it hasn’t been helping him much lately. In fact, it looks as if more than 100 professional bouts have left his body unable to keep up with his razor-sharp mind -- a weakness that Palhares will capitalize on quickly as he pulls guard and promptly contorts Horn into several undesired yoga positions.

Don’t bank on any last hurrahs for Horn. His grappling game has failed to keep step with the new generation -- a flaw that will make a submission win for Palhares a formality. On the upside, Horn could so settle into the role of official grandfather of MMA. You know, the guy who all the kids settle around to hear old war stories while hoping that he’ll let them have a sip from his highball of Johnny Walker. Not bad work if you can get it.