UFC 177 ‘Dillashaw vs. Barao 2’ Preview

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Lightweights

Danny Castillo (17-6, 7-3 UFC) vs. Tony Ferguson (15-3, 5-1 UFC)

The Matchup: Should this be a co-main event on a pay-per-view card? No, probably not, but we should not let that overshadow the fact that it still has the potential to be a delightful scrap. Ferguson has flown under the radar despite his consummately well-rounded skills and status as an “Ultimate Fighter” winner, largely because he has only fought twice in the last two years.

Castillo, meanwhile, has earned himself a spot as a gatekeeper to the division’s top 20.

Ferguson is a three-dimensional fighter. A Division II national champion wrestler, he is also a powerful, talented striker with a slick submission game, all of which is made more effective by his plus athleticism. Ferguson pushes a quick pace on the feet, throwing potent, rangy combinations -- counters are a specialty -- interspersed with cracking low and middle kicks. He is hittable, however, especially early in the fight before he adapts his head movement to his opponent’s timing. Offensively, he uses his wrestling mostly as a change of pace, but his takedown defense has thus far been perfect: His sprawl is ultra-quick, his balance on single-legs nearly flawless. His front headlock is exceptionally dangerous, with a variety of smooth setups for brabo chokes, guillotines and transitions to dominant positions.

Nobody expected much from Castillo when he entered the UFC, but he has carved out a nice career for himself with a mixture of rugged striking, solid wrestling and stifling top control. He has admirable power in his hands, though he struggles to string his punches together into combinations, and throws hard low kicks. The real strength of his game is his quick-paced wrestling: Castillo does not possess a particularly explosive shot, but he does an excellent job in scrambles and chaining together his takedown attempts. Once the fight hits the ground, he is nearly impossible to shake off, though he is not a particularly dynamic guard-passer or submission artist.

Betting Odds: Ferguson (-230), Castillo (+190)

The Pick: This is a brutal matchup for Castillo. While he is an excellent wrestler, he probably will not be able to work takedowns with any regularity; on the feet, he cannot match Ferguson’s pace and output. Castillo will land a few shots early and possibly drag Ferguson to the mat, but as the fight wears on and “El Cucuy” gets his timing down, Castillo’s vulnerabilities will begin to show. The crux of the striking matchup comes down to Castillo’s vulnerability to counter shots as he attempts to move inside, especially the straight right -- a punch Ferguson throws with fantastic timing and power. Ferguson wins via counter right knockout in the second round.

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