Frank Mir (left) is most dangerous in the opening minutes of a fight. | Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com
Heavyweights
Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson
In a heavyweight match, the better wrestler has the obvious edge, particularly when he is the harder hitter with more proven cardio. That is Nelson, in case you have not read between the lines. Do not be fooled by the belly -- “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 10 winner can dunk a basketball, and he is exceptional on the mat. Mir’s knockout wins over faded stars like Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira were admirable showings but must be placed in perspective.
This is Nelson’s fight to lose. He should be able to keep it at least even on the feet and will be stronger in the clinch. Mir’s submission game and guard could pose problems early, as he is great at exploiting small openings. That said, Nelson will probably look to wear down Mir on the feet and in the clinch.
The Pick: Look for Nelson to pick his spots, particularly in tie-ups, where Mir has shown a tendency to rest. Nelson will not let him, and he will step on the gas pedal, wearing down Mir for a third-round stoppage.
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