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FIGHT ODDS

UFC 126 Preview: The Prelims

Jason ProbstFeb 04, 2011
Donald Cerrone (left) | Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com


Lightweights
Donald Cerrone vs. Paul Kelly

The Matchup: Cerrone cut his teeth in some of the WEC’s classic slugfests, while Kelly’s done the same, albeit against lesser competition, in the UFC. Much like Cerrone, Kelly’s more of a submission guy than an overpowering wrestler, and given their penchant for banging on the feet, this seems a lock to be a live one.

Cerrone possesses one of the best chins in the game, which means he is not afraid to take risks with flying knees or by trading in the pocket. Kelly has steadily improved since his guillotine loss to Marcus Davis at UFC 89, but he has faltered against the better lightweights.

Cerrone has proven tough to beat if for those unable to outwrestle and outwork him, and Kelly should play into his hands. Look for the “Cowboy” to land effective in the opening round, using his height and aggression to set the tone. At some point, Kelly will oblige him, even if the range and opportunities do not favor him.

The Pick: Cerrone will pick apart Kelly and eventually get him to the ground en route to a second-round submission.

Continue Reading » Next Fight: “Kid” Yamamoto vs. Johnson