UFC 121 Preview: The Main Card

Welterweights
Jake Shields (No. 3 MW, No. 8 PFP) vs. Martin Kampmann (No. 6 WW)

The Matchup: A long time coming, Shields’ debut in the UFC will be watched for several reasons. Hardcore fans have followed him for years after his work in Rumble on the Rock, Shooto, EliteXC and Strikeforce; casual types welcome anyone who can emerge as a viable threat to welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre.

Kampmann is a good start to that conversation, as he brings a perceived advantage in stand-up and a game with no glaring weaknesses. His ground chops are exceptionally strong for a kickboxing-based fighter, but Shields’ are better, which should negate a critical advantage off of which Kampmann usually plays to beat people.

Shields excels at forcing people on the defensive with his grappling game. His timing is what makes him so effective, as he will drop down seamlessly to grab a leg while opponents are swinging at his head or improve position while they look to strike on the ground. What Shields’ game comes down to are highly refined nuts and bolts, as opposed to flashy moves and verbal panache. He simply out-positions and outworks you, which is why he beat Dan Henderson in a bout in which few gave him a prayer.

It also laid the foundation for his entry into the UFC. Dropping back to welterweight, he will be in a talented division that, promotion-wise, is sorely in need of a fresh face for GSP.

The Pick: Shields’ chin should carry him through if Kampmann connects, and that will prove enough to allow him to force it to the ground. Kampmann is no slouch on the mat and will find himself battling Shields’ onslaught of top pressure, strikes and a grind-’em-down approach. Shields also has an excellent defensive guard and submissions in case he winds up on his back. He will put those together for a third-round submission or strike-induced TKO on the ground.