UFC 115 Preview: The Prelims

Mac Danzig vs. Matt Wiman

Never before has the UFC cut a TUF champion who had no prior Octagon experience, but Danzig’s 2-3 post-TUF record might have him on thin ice. The super-zombie pit that is the lightweight division offers him little in the way of competitive respites. Living proof comes in the form of Wiman, a rugged jack-of-all-trades much in the same vein as Danzig who presents serious stylistic issues for MMA’s No. 1 vegan.

The main obstacle Danzig has yet to overcome in his Octagon run is his substandard takedown defense, which has led to him becoming an easy mark for the multitude of quality wrestlers in the division. It’s an equally true statement for Wiman, but he is the better wrestler of the two thanks to his slick single-leg and surprising secondary techniques. While Danzig does have a good defensive guard, he isn’t going to tap out Wiman from guard and his sweeps just aren’t good enough to consistently reverse position.

Standing is where the money’s at for Danzig. He has mauling power behind his strikes and is effective at all ranges due to his diversity of techniques. Wiman is the type of striker who can throw a solid one-two, land some leg kicks and not much else. However, he has the good sense to stay light on his feet, use head movement and generally avoid the kinds of exchanges where his offensive limitations would become a liability. This forces Danzig to step into the pocket in search of offense, and that’s where he’ll be more vulnerable to level changes.

What really limits Danzig’s ability to tag Wiman, though, is his plodding footwork and overall lack of speed -- a glaring weakness in a division where everyone fights like they’re mainlining espresso. That’s not to say this is a mismatch. Wiman isn’t the sort of overwhelming top control beast that has so often derailed Danzig. Far more likely is a competitive bout that is won and lost on Danzig’s ability to create scrambles and keep Wiman from passing guard.

The latter of the two is especially important for Danzig. Wiman’s base from dominant positions is smothering, and while he isn’t the greatest guard passer around, he’s a natural at using scrambles to advance position. Again, that spells problems for Danzig since he lacks the cage-walking skills to pop back to his feet and relies exclusively on initiating scrambles off his back to improve position. Should those scrambles end up favoring Wiman, Danzig is probably better off stalling for a referee restart.

Like many of Danzig’s recent fights, he’ll keep it competitive and maybe even steal a round, but he’s missing the extra something to put him over the top. Wiman fits the mold of fighter that has given Danzig trouble throughout his career. The only reasonable call is another 15 minutes of frustration for Danzig, as he drops a unanimous decision.