UFC 104 Preview: The Main Card

Ben Rothwell vs. Cain Velasquez

The Breakdown: The latest aftershock of Affliction’s Hindenburg re-enactment sees Rothwell going from facing a solid prospect in Chase Gormley to a co-headlining bout against arguably the division’s number one blue-chipper. Having already failed -- thanks to his slugging mentality -- in past bids to establish himself as an elite heavyweight, Rothwell needs to stay focused on keeping Velasquez at fist’s reach and avoiding the top control special that Cheick Kongo was served at UFC 99. Rothwell has not shown the takedown defense necessary to keep Velasquez upright, but as long as he stays on the defensive with the American Kickboxing Academy disciple and snaps off combinations whenever the pocket becomes compromised, he could easily dynamite Velasquez’s flaws wide open.

Even though Kongo dropped him three times, Velasquez dominated the rest of their fight, and Rothwell is hardly in Kongo’s league in the striking department. Rothwell gave the notoriously fragile Andrei Arlovski some of his best shots at Affliction “Banned,” but it was the former International Fight League standout who got his jaw inverted while Arlovski seemed no worse for the wear. Rothwell may not have to worry about getting the face-plant special in this fight, but if he cannot stop Velasquez’s magical mystery takedown tour, then he might as well not even show up.

The X-Factor: For a guy who looks like he raids going out of business sales at bakeries, Rothwell has proven himself a surprisingly sound grappler. Consider that the extra dimension he will need to counter the perpetual motion machine that is Velasquez’s ground-and-pound. However, most of Rothwell’s submissions have come from top control, and he seems more likely to discover the universal solvent than outwrestle Velasquez. Just how much of Rothwell’s submission savvy translates to his guard will be key, as he has little in the way of hope if he cannot give Velasquez something to worry about on the mat.

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The Bottom Line: Despite giving up a world of experience and dealing with borderline insane fans who think getting dropped by one of the division’s best strikers means you have no chin, Velasquez is the easy choice here. Rothwell’s takedown defense has betrayed him in the past, and he does not have the power or technique to take advantage of what little time he will spend on the feet. Expect Wisconsin’s favorite son to show his trademark toughness by gutting it out for 15 minutes, but that will not keep the referee from raising Velasquez’s hand.