UFC 103 Preview: The Main Card

Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic vs. Junior "Cigano" dos Santos

The Breakdown: The new guard of the UFC heavyweight division gets another chance to announce their presence when Dos Santos looks to add a high-profile scalp to his collection against faded heavyweight superstar Filipovic. Once upon a time in Pride, Filipovic’s K1-bred kickboxing made him a terror. Time, however, has robbed him of the balance, reflexes and footwork that made him such a uniquely dangerous fighter. It makes for a stark contrast to the Filipovic of today, who now relies heavily on boxing that doesn’t match up against Dos Santos’ superior hand speed and accuracy.

Although Dos Santos does have the habit of walking straight in and keeping his right hand too low, Filipovic was getting walked down by Mustapha Al-Turk at UFC 99 and, more importantly, I could solve world hunger in the time it took him to find the huge openings in Al-Turk’s defense. When Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg find the holes in your opponent’s defense before you do, you’ve got problems. Dos Santos’ aggressive style means Filipovic won’t have the time he needs to find a home for his strikes. Cro-Bauer doesn’t do well when he’s forced out of his methodical style, and Dos Santos will step right inside his range with powerful, accurate punches. Whether Filipovic still has the balance and speed to do anything about it is what will decide his future fistic luck.

The X Factor: Injuries are the universal reality in sports, and figuring out just how much they influence a fighter’s performance is like trying to get through an episode of TMZ: absolutely pointless in multiple ways. Filipovic has struggled with injuries in the past. Now he claims a clean bill of health, but after watching his supposed comeback against Al-Turk, it looks as if he has more than injuries to worry about. The tools are there: Filipovic’s left high kick and southpaw jab are made to pick apart Dos Santos. The ability to use them may be a thing of the past, though.

The Bottom Line: At this point in his career, Filipovic’s legendary left high kick is a weapon he can no longer wield, and that inability to keep opponents at bay with the threat of kicks has thrown off his whole striking game. This reality will become apparent when Dos Santos gets right in his grill and starts winging combinations that our favorite terrorist stomper doesn’t have the means to evade or counter. It won’t take long for Dos Santos to discover that his favored left hook feint to right uppercut combo has a home inside Filipovic’s defense, and that same right uppercut that caved in Werdum’s jaw will add another low point to Filipovic’s UFC career.